Articles

The futures Map and its quality criteria

The article discusses quality criteria for futures research in the frame of so-called ‘Futures Map’. This article is the edited and developed version of the article (Futura 1: 60-77, 2015). Based on the comments ...

Authors: Osmo Kuusi, Kerstin Cuhls and Karlheinz Steinmüller

The topical collection on quality criteria for futures research: a short introduction

Authors: Osmo Kuusi, Kerstin Cuhls and Karlheinz Steinmüller

The changing nature of city tourism and its possible implications for the future of cities

City tourism is one of the fastest growing travel segments worldwide [18] and the changing nature of city tourism becomes increasingly apparent in many cities. Facilitated by mobile access to information, tourist...

Authors: Kerstin Bock

A new path in foresight validation? Discussing the socio-epistemic underpinning of foresight quality criteria

At present, there are different attempts to establish quality criteria for foresight based on both, the epistemic and the procedural level and all these attempts contribute to a scientific discourse on foresig...

Authors: Erduana Shala

The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) tool for technology anticipation and evaluation: introduction and quality criteria analysis

This paper contributes to the recent discussion about the standards and quality of futures research. The quality criteria proposed by Kuusi (Futura 1/15, 2015) concern the internal and external validity of a f...

Authors: Anna-Leena Vasamo

How to justify beliefs about the future - some epistemological remarks

This elaboration will explore the epistemology of futures studies. To address this, first the logi-cal ground of epistemology has to be examined, i.e., the laws of thought and in connection to that, the mere p...

Authors: Matthias Sonk

New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

This paper proposes two criteria to assess and compare the quality of (integrated) scenarios, namely scenario traceability and scenario consistency. From a futures research perspective, both are identified as bei...

Authors: Hannah Kosow

Transition pathways to fully automated driving and its implications for the sociotechnical system of automobility

The advent of fully automated road vehicles is a topic currently getting attention in the field of transport as well as futures research: the technology is assumed to radically change the way we move in the fu...

Authors: Eva Fraedrich, Sven Beiker and Barbara Lenz

EU mobility partnerships: a smart instrument for the externalization of migration control

The text deals with a policy instrument developed by the European Union, namely the so called Mobility Partnerships. Framed within the “Global Approach to Migration and Mobility” of the EU, this rather new con...

Authors: Stefan Brocza and Katharina Paulhart

The autonomous car—a blessing or a curse for the future of low carbon mobility? An exploration of likely vs. desirable outcomes

Certain developed countries have experienced the ‘peak car’ phenomenon. While this remains to be confirmed longitudinally, it looks certain that future mobility in Europe and elsewhere will be shaped by a part...

Authors: Nikolas Thomopoulos and Moshe Givoni

Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work pre...

Authors: J. Bernardino, A. Aggelakakis, M. Reichenbach, J. Vieira, M. Boile, J. Schippl, P. Christidis, A. Papanikolaou, A. Condeco, H. Garcia and M. Krail

Shifts, turning points and inertia exploring long-term industry trends in European transport

In this introduction to the topical collection on the “Future of Transport in Europe”, we argue that European transport regimes are at a turning point and despite the sector inertia, we can detect cultural, so...

Authors: Massimo Moraglio and Hans-Liudger Dienel

Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway

It is widely recognized that transformation of urban areas are urgent to meet the demands for more efficient and environmental friendly transportation in the future. Although there are general agreements on th...

Authors: Tom Erik Julsrud and Tanu Priya Uteng

Media ecology and the future ecosystemic society

This article discusses a possible future, in which the network society is deepening to become an internet-based ecosystemic society. The study of the possible societal impacts of the ‘media disruption’ brought...

Authors: Juho Ruotsalainen and Sirkka Heinonen

A resource-efficient and sufficient future mobility system for improved well-being in Europe

A transformation of our current transport system and individual mobility behaviour is an essential pre-requisite for attaining a desirable future that enables a life within environmental boundaries (“safe oper...

Authors: Moritz Kammerlander, Karin Schanes, Franziska Hartwig, Jill Jäger, Ines Omann and Michelle O’Keeffe

Wild cards in transport

The analysis of Wild Cards, potential low-likelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises. This paper presents the ...

Authors: Aharon Hauptman, Merja Hoppe and Yoel Raban

Participatory and prospective value network analysis: supporting transition towards biofuels in Finnish road transport

If the European energy and transport sectors are to meet the 2050 energy and climate policy targets, major socio-technical change (transition) is necessary. Along with new technologies, changes are required al...

Authors: Anu Tuominen, Nina Wessberg and Anna Leinonen

A strategic policy scenario analysis framework for the sustainable tourist development of peripheral small island areas – the case of Lefkada-Greece Island

The focus of the present paper is on the development of a methodological framework for guiding strategic decision-making towards the sustainable future development of peripheral small island regions, constitut...

Authors: Anastasia Stratigea and Vicky Katsoni

The future of individualization in Europe: changing configurations in employment and governance

The accelerated individualization brings immense promises for innovations in technological development, for improvement of the economic and political organization and for creativity in the cultural life of Eur...

Authors: Nikolai Genov

Post-Soviet Russian identity and its influence on European-Russian relations

The current crisis between the EU and Russia is influenced by much more serious factors than political tensions over Ukraine or the US political agenda. We suppose that to some extent it has represented a cons...

Authors: A. Likhacheva, I. Makarov and E. Makarova

The German Enquete Commission on growth, prosperity and quality of life: a model for futures studies?

From January 2011 until April 2013, the Enquete Commission “Growth, Prosperity, Quality of Life”, a political body appointed by the German parliament and consisting of 17 experts and 17 MPs, analysed aspects o...

Authors: Frederike Strunk

Integrating Delphi methodology to some classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: arctic maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight—a pilot study from Finland

This article presents a way how the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) analysis tools can be combined with the Delphi methodology, and especially with the BCG portfolio matrix analysis. The Delphi Method is one of ...

Authors: Yrjö Myllylä and Jari Kaivo-oja

Exploration of external indicators of social change in postmodern communities

The current study explores external indicators of social change through the lens of Sorokin’s theory of cultural dynamics; utilising case studies of two master built communities from vastly different cultural ...

Authors: Marta Botta

Living within the safe operating space: a vision for a resource efficient Europe

A desirable future critically depends on our ability to ensure the supply of key resources while simultaneously respecting planetary boundaries. This paper looks at the potential implications of living within ...

Authors: Meghan O’Brien, Franziska Hartwig, Karin Schanes, Moritz Kammerlander, Ines Omann, Henning Wilts, Raimund Bleischwitz and Jill Jäger

We are family? governance and the prospects for instability in Europe

While Europe has faced trials during the financial crisis and subsequent austerity, the European continent is still considered one of the most stable areas on the planet. This article argues, however, that the...

Authors: Shana Buchanan McLean

The future of European education: A political strategy & four action areas

The European integration project is confronting one of the greatest challenges in its recent history. The profound current financial crisis is jeopardising both trust in the process of integration and the supp...

Authors: Alfonso Diestro Fernández

Trans-national diffusion patterns and the future of far right party research: Independence vs. interdependence

An extensive literature deals with the socio-political and electoral factors that inspire and explain far right party development. Very often in this discussion, far right parties (FRPs) are hypothesised as in...

Authors: Steven M. Van Hauwaert

Two futures: EU-Russia relations in the context of Ukraine.

The enduring crisis in Ukraine presents the European Union (EU) with a conundrum. Should it strengthen its economic and energy ties despite Russia’s growing assertiveness in the hope to solidify its medium ter...

Authors: Samuel R. Schubert, Johannes Pollak and Elina Brutschin

Democratization and elitism in the EU: two opposing trends (Guest-Editor’s introduction to the topical collection on “The Future of Europe”)

Europe has been facing a multi-dimensional crisis since 2008 with a strong impact on the quality of democracy in the EU and its member states. The continuous loss of citizens’ support threatens the very existe...

Authors: Markus Pausch

Foresight in support of European research and innovation policies: The European Commission is preparing the funding of grand societal challenges

A foresight hub within the Directorate General Research and Innovation (DG RTD) of the European Commission will support the decision-making procedures of the EU Horizon 2020 research, technology, and innovatio...

Authors: Jean-Claude Burgelman, Jarka Chloupková and Werner Wobbe

Neglected futures. Considering overlooked poverty in Europe

With poverty reduction being one of the five targets of the EU 2020 process, poverty is currently high on the agenda for the European Union and the 27 Member States. The applied methodology of measuring povert...

Authors: Helmut P. Gaisbauer and Clemens Sedmak

The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A review of the events that have been going on in Europe shows a great evolution of the threat and the continuous eme...

Authors: José María Blanco Navarro and Jéssica Cohen Villaverde

Time out of mind? Picturing presence in future research

It is above all sociology and media theory which to an increasing extent are providing impulses for redefining the modern semantics of the concept of time. At the focus of attention here is the explication of ...

Authors: Friederike Müller-Friemauth and Eckard Minx

Intimate futures: bringing the body into futures work

It is argued in this paper that the intimate nature of language, as well as the intimacy of the senses, form important elements in the theory and practice of futures. Such elements tend to be sidelined as futu...

Authors: Marcus Bussey

Regional cosmopolitanism: the EU in search of its legitimation

What could be the legitimation basis of the European Union (EU)? This article questions the idea of two constitution-making subjects in the EU and claim there is and can only be one constituting subject even i...

Authors: Erik O. Eriksen

Transformation in transportation?

The world of transportation is changing. Due to increasing mobility demand, challenges like financing, dealing with emissions and volatile oil prices are accentuated. Decision-makers in the areas of policy and...

Authors: Merja Hoppe, Andreas Christ, Alberto Castro, Martin Winter and Tiina-Maria Seppänen

Is the post-human a post-woman? Cyborgs, robots, artificial intelligence and the futures of gender: a case study

This study aims to shed light on the debate about the futures of gender, by taking into account its significance in the current development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyborg technologies and robotics. It...

Authors: Francesca Ferrando

A participatory methodological framework for paving alternative local tourist development paths—the case of Sterea Ellada Region

The focus of the present paper is on the development of a participatory methodological framework, based on the future workshop participatory approach and participatory evaluation tools for planning the integra...

Authors: Maria Panagiotopoulou and Anastasia Stratigea

What corporations do with foresight

Foresight involves future-oriented awareness and planning, enabling businesses to respond quickly and effectively to future market threats and opportunities. However, knowledge about corporate foresight practi...

Authors: Mohamad S. Hammoud and Douglas P. Nash

Innovation in higher education; will there be a role for “the academe/university” in 2025?

This paper focuses on the innovation management (or lack of it perhaps) of Higher Education as a sector, highlighting examples of practice from industry and private providers that suggest the university needs ...

Authors: Eddie Blass and Peter Hayward

Design and application for a replicable foresight methodology bridging quantitative and qualitative expert data

Producing foresight knowledge frequently requires both evidence and creativity based expertise. This paper offers assessment of an electronic expert Group Support System (named «E-lab») facilitating efficient ...

Authors: Jan Erik Karlsen

European packaging industry foresight study—identifying global drivers and driven packaging industry implications of the global megatrends

The purpose of the research is to provide a common multi-client platform as a base for further applied foresight work in the packaging sector. It aims to be a reference for a future-oriented strategic dialogue...

Authors: Carl Olsmats and Jari Kaivo-oja

Controversial futures—discourse analysis on utilizing the “fracking” technology in Germany

There is an ongoing controversy in many European countries about the use of hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as “fracking”, to extract shale gas. This article argues that the political regulation is strong...

Authors: Mira Schirrmeister

Will the real security foresight expert please stand up?

In its critical comparative overview of foresight methods and how they are used by different futures institutes in Europe, North America, and their partners, the text argues that while many futures institutes ...

Authors: Sarah Lohmann and Tim Tepel

Leadership in the sixth wave—excursions into the new paradigm of the Kondratieff cycle 2010–2050

The paper investigates the concept of leadership and its significance to businesses, societies and individuals in the next 40 years. The underlying framework in the paper is the theory of socio-economic change...

Authors: Markku Wilenius

Trust in the education system – thoughts on a fragile bridge into the future

This article discusses trust and its evident crisis with a particular focus on the education system (1). Subsequently, the function of trust in the complex knowledge-based society is highlighted (2). Using imp...

Authors: Inka Bormann and René John

Re-Assessing resource dependency and criticality. Linking future food and water stress with global resource supply vulnerabilities for foresight analysis

While strategic studies on natural resources usually focus on the criticality of certain single materials, our paper starts from the inter-linkages between and among resources (called “the resource nexus”). It ex...

Authors: Raimund Bleischwitz, Corey M. Johnson and Michael G. Dozler

The rise and promise of participatory foresight

Historically, the capability of predicting the future has always been perceived as a matter of certain inequalities, reflecting the initiation in or access to significant knowledge with regard to the future. T...

Authors: Blagovesta Nikolova

Irritation expertise

The contribution at hand puts forward the notion of “irritation expertise”: knowing how to push others into a direction not chosen voluntarily. This kind of knowledge, I will argue, is of particular importance...

Authors: Marc Mölders

Modes of orientation provided by futures studies: making sense of diversity and divergence

Debates about the future are an essential medium of modern societies’ self-understanding and governance. In this context, future studies and reflections are frequently advising decision-making processes. But t...

Authors: Armin Grunwald