Study context
OceansFootnote 1 are becoming vulnerable because more and more issues are coming into play. For example, security and military issues are of major interest [1–3], as well as energy, considering that 33 % of oil and gas come from marine deposits, an increasing proportion over the past 40 years [4, 5]. Oceans present also promising potential for marine renewable energy with several technologies already at sea [6]. Commercial issues are also fundamental as 80 % of commodities are transported by sea [7]. Numerous activities with high economic or heritage value are linked to the sea and to its water quality: ecosystem services [8], tourism, including mass cruises [9], fisheries, desalination to produce fresh water [10], aquaculture, since fish is the 3rd source of protein reared by humans [11]. Worldwide, increasing usage and artificiality of the shoreline [12] coupled with growing awareness of the disproportionate ecological footprint left by human activity on the oceans are being observed [13, 14]. The European Marine Board [15, 16] highlighted the substantive and complex interactions between the marine environment and its ecological status on the one hand, and human health and wellbeing on the other, drawing attention to a range of important research questions and challenges on the interface between oceans and society. The movements of the oceanic mass and its physical, chemical and biological characteristics make it very complex to monitor and understand under a significant global climate change.
Oceans are now perceived as a global challenge both by politicians and general public [17]. This global challenge takes numerous aspects, owing to a large number of perceptions of the geographical space, whether intuitive or rational. Indeed, depending on the viewpoint, the sea is perceived as:
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A threat (sea-level rise, storms, piracy, etc.);
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A dumping ground (receptacle of discharges from farming, industry, cities, etc.);
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Toxic (algal blooms, invasive species, etc.);
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Useful (shipping routes, including the Arctic, aquaculture, etc.);
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A reservoir of resources (fisheries, fossil fuels, renewable energies, biodiversity, molecules, sand and gravel, etc.);
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A shelter (a safe place for endangered species in various forms of protected areas);
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A place for recreation and relaxation (culture, tourism, spas, marine parks, etc.).
There are numerous studies related to one aspect of oceans, seas and seashores, but very few of them deal with a global perspective or encompass the complexity of issues related with maritime space and activities [16]. The marine domain is usually addressed by discipline or by issue: climate change, living resources, mineral resources, biodiversity, pollution, maritime safety, technological hazards, and so on. This segmented approach is not conducive to understanding the global phenomena at play or to renewing the way decision-makers consider the ocean. This observation is relevant for several other fields (agriculture, transport, industry…), notably when technology is playing an increasing role [18]. Consequently, there is a great risk that - by keeping research on the same tracks - breakthroughs and innovative issues are missed out [19–21]. Multi- or interdisciplinary research is then necessary as it facilitates the pooling of approaches, not just in terms of scientific knowledge, but also in terms of “thought systems” [22, 23]. Images or mental representations of the sea should also be taken into account, because they influence human behaviors on the scale of hundreds of millions of people, in a variety of activities like seaside tourism or seafood consumption [24].
Objective
In 2012, the Prosper networkFootnote 2 decided to gather its variety of skills and expertise in foresight and research to work together on one selected topic. The French national institute of research for the exploitation of the sea (Ifremer) proposed to support this initiative, selecting the theme of the collaborative work: a shared identification of future priorities for oceanic research. The French Ministry of Research also helped this joint and multidisciplinary approach. In effect, the overall aim was to produce a comprehensive analysis of the interactions between societies and oceans in order to be able to explore and to rank the major challenges of the oceans and the related issues for research, for the next 15 years.
The time horizon set for the study was 2030 because (i) many existing foresight studies related to various aspects of oceans have already taken this time horizon; (ii) 2030 is sufficiently distant to shift trends and to provide innovations; (iii) decision-makers feel concerned about this time horizon bound to many European and national political targets; (iv) 15 years ahead seems enough to prepare relevant research task forces.
The approach should be large, beyond specialized disciplines (physics of the oceans, chemistry, marine biology, biodiversity....), including economics, social aspects and governance. As the Prosper group is rich in several disciplines, it was an opportunity to work together with a mix of experts of the oceans and laymen, with the support of a specific bibliography. This diversity was an asset in the assessment of several maritime activities and societal functions. As Prosper experts had a limited time for working groups, and benefitted of a experienced foresight studies office (Futuribles), it was decided to select a continuous iteration of the process, starting from a basic idea: to cross maritime activities and societal functions, and explore trends and impacts in each crossing. The advantage of such approach was to benefit from two existing sets of data, one about foresight studies in the domain of the sea (prepared by Ifremer) and one about main trends in economics and societies (proposed by Futuribles). Final results could be selected by stepwise clustering. These results could be assessed by a survey proposed to a larger audience.
Methodology
The selection and fine-tuning of the method have to be done according to the objectives of the study: a scientific and multidisciplinary analysis to bring out major challenges in the coming 15 years, regarding oceanic spaces. From these challenges could be deduced logically the main issues for research.
The Prosper group observed that a strict normative approach presented a risk: this could lock up the reflection in a conventional framework that could flange creativity. Indeed, the group was aware of the need to keep the maximum of “degrees of freedom” for the reflection for three reasons: firstly, because foresight analysis in such a broad topic as “oceans and societies” requires several contributions from numerous disciplines, notably social sciences [25]; secondly, because priority has to be given to the “plausible”, before the ‘probable”, as the actors involved in the study were numerous [26] and thirdly, because the Prosper group has to consider several criteria of quality of data from the bibliography: relevance of trends, importance of drivers, credibility of sources [27]. Consequently, it was important to select a foresight method, which could secure a “backbone” to the multiple expected interactions generated by the multidisciplinary approach. Thus, after open discussion on the pros and cons of different methods, the approach of a baseline evolution was selected by the Prosper group, with a multifaceted projection of trends and impacts as recommended for multidisciplinary studies [28]. The originality of the study remains the starting point of analysis: the systematic crossing of economic activities at sea and global societal functions.
The selected foresight method belongs to the family of baseline scenarios, according to the classification of Bishop, Hines and Collins [29]. Actually, this method produces only one scenario based on trends and impacts analysis. The modal technique is to measure existing trends and extrapolate their effects in the future by the use of cross impact matrix. This method is also included in the global group of “intuitive-logics models” which methodological orientation is “essentially subjective and qualitative, relying on disciplined intuition” [30]. According to the usual practices in this group of methods, the process is “managed by an experienced foresight practitioner” (in this study: Futuribles) and the process “asks remarkable people as catalyst of new ideas” (in this study: Prosper core group). The usual tools are, among others, brainstorming, clustering, matrices and stakeholders analysis. The method is also close to a Delphi-type study as it takes into account the three key functions of a Delphi process: brainstorming, narrowing down and ranking [31].
The time horizon of 2030 allows to avoid the risk mentioned in the dilemma of Collingridge [32]: in foresight analysis, if the horizon is too far, it is not operational; but when it is too short, it is useless. Yet, if the interactions between oceans and societies can be managed still, inaction or “business as usual” may have serious consequences on the mid-term. A time span of 15 years seems to be reasonable for efficient decisions. A second reason is that about 8 to 10 years are needed to educate and form a PhD in marine science. Another decade is required to collect and train an efficient team of research in any field and notably in marine science as data collection mobilizes several complex tools (ships, underwater robots, culture tanks…) and dynamic international networks for scientific cooperation. Consequently, it is useful to identify the key issues for oceanic research in order to be able to address them in 15–20 years. Additionally, the 2030 horizon is relevant because it allows research institutions to integrate related recommendations into their own strategy. Finally, this mid-term horizon also helps to anticipate future funding programs (e.g. after H2020, current funds for European research) providing concrete elements to the experts in charge of defining the next priority topics.