Articles

Futuring European industry: assessing the ManuFuture road towards EU re-industrialization

Industry is the backbone of the European economy—producing 80% of Europe’s exports, accounting for 80% of private Research, Technology Development and Innovation (RTDI) expenditures, and providing more than 30...

Authors: Björn Sautter

Foresighting organizational learning equilibrium in European universities

This article presents a short journey into the realm of foresighting exploration and exploitation of knowledge. Universities aim to achieve a prolific balance between research, education and third mission acti...

Authors: Stig A. Selmer-Anderssen and Jan E. Karlsen

Twitter data analysis as contribution to strategic foresight-The case of the EU Research Project “Foresight and Modelling for European Health Policy and Regulations” (FRESHER)

In this article the value of Twitter data analysis for a strategic foresight exercise is discussed. The article offers an overview of Twitter’s basic functionalities, previous Twitter research and related stud...

Authors: André Uhl, Nina Kolleck and Edgar Schiebel

Pedagogies of the futures: Shifting the educational paradigms

Focusing on an educational paradigm rooted in critical pedagogy, the socratic method, futures studies, and peace education, this essay takes the position that classrooms of the future should be transformed int...

Authors: Jelena Cingel Bodinet

Foresight as a key enabler of innovation in the economy. Introduction to the topical collection

Authors: Anna Sacio-Szymańska, Gualtiero Fantoni and Cornelia Daheim

Is the Delphi method valid for business ethics? A survey analysis

Although Delphi has come a long way in the development of the method itself, or even in business organisation, it has not been used at all in business ethics. To fill this gap, we have reviewed the literature ...

Authors: Leire San-Jose and Jose Luis Retolaza

Scenarios for crime and terrorist attacks using the internet of things

The Internet of Things is a paradigm in which everyday items are connected to the internet and share information with other devices. This new paradigm is rapidly becoming a reality in the developed world, and ...

Authors: Roey Tzezana

Teaching with scenarios: a social innovation to foster learning and social change in times of great uncertainty

Learning strategies are social innovations of the past. To help us cope with problems in the past, they were developed, imitated, spread and codified into practices, rules and institutions. They lose their use...

Authors: Andrea Cederquist and Ulrich Golüke

Ana’s tragedy – and Europe’s a contemplation over Romani, belonging and the conditioned citizenship making in a Europe of migration

This article deals with the notion of belonging in today’s multi-ethnic Sweden and hints at perpectives of future European identity-building. On the basis of Frantz Fanon’s understanding of colonialism and the...

Authors: Magnus Dahlstedt and Maria Olson

Future creation in the strategising practice of a Hungarian company

The core research question that is discussed in this paper is: “How is the future constructed in corporate strategy-making practice?” The answer is provided through the analysis of a single case study that was...

Authors: Judit Gáspár

Innovation explosion catalysed by foresight-results of an experiment

One of the major findings of the Greece-2021 Technology Foresight project concerns a multiple innovation blockage phenomenon, affecting strategic sectors of the national economy and society. To analyse and abate ...

Authors: Emmanuel G. Koukios

Functional technology foresight. A novel methodology to identify emerging technologies

The speed and complexity of the technology evolution faced by modern societies need new approaches to the analysis and understanding of the world. Indeed, an exclusive focus on technological goals can miss to ...

Authors: Riccardo Apreda, Andrea Bonaccorsi, Felice dell’Orletta and Gualtiero Fantoni

Using strategic foresight methods to anticipate and prepare for the jobs-scarce economy

A fundamental shift in the future of work is underway, with significant implications for the number, location, and types of jobs. This shift is entangled in a wider set of longer-term transitions. The disrupti...

Authors: Angela Wilkinson

Interactions between oceans and societies in 2030: challenges and issues for research

The perception of ocean areas by policy-makers or by people, living or not on the coast, has significantly varied over centuries. Due to its vastness and complexity, the sea has been studied within distinct ac...

Authors: Denis Lacroix, Bernard David, Véronique Lamblin, Nicolas de Menthière, Marie de Lattre-Gasquet, Antoine Guigon, Emmanuelle Jannès-Ober, Halvard Hervieu, Françoise Potier, Gilles Ragain and Moussa Hoummady

Peer-to-peer work in the digital meaning society 2050

The article discusses possible futures of self-organising peer-to-peer work through four transformative scenarios constructed in the Neo-Carbon Energy research project. These futures images probe the futures o...

Authors: Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen

The ambiguity of intelligent algorithms: job killer or supporting assistant

The history of industrialisation shows how new technologies triggered social and economic revolutions, and how traditional jobs were replaced or changed by the use of machines. There are signs of highly dynami...

Authors: Anette Braun, Axel Zweck and Dirk Holtmannspötter

Human centred science and technology—transdisciplinary foresight and co-creation as tools for active needs-based innovation governance

Current governance structures are increasingly showing inability to address complex issues such as the Grand Challenges. Dealing with these highly interrelated, cross cutting, extensive and potentially open en...

Authors: Niklas Gudowsky and Walter Peissl

Educational change, inertia and potential futures

The point of departure of the paper is that there are profound social, cultural, technological, scientific and environmental changes which occur at most local but also at global levels of the modern world. Fro...

Authors: Jón Torfi Jónasson

A transforming international system and the three approaches to the security dilemma

This article seeks to analyse the security dilemma in light of the transforming international system of today. Hereby, K. Waltz’s three images of war (men, the state, the international system) were taken as th...

Authors: Evgenia Gordeeva

Forecasting potential innovation activities in high-tech industries triggered by merger and acquisition deals: a framework of analysis

Technologies arising out of successful high-tech mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have a significant innovation potential. However, forecasting of the possible output is coupled with uncertainties caused by misl...

Authors: Elena Aminova

The strongness of weak signals: self-reference and paradox in anticipatory systems

Social sciences are experiencing an anticipatory turn. A core issue of this turn are the so-called ‘weak signals’. In order to speak of this type of signals, we must use the distinction between weak and strong...

Authors: Alberto Cevolini

“They are all Turks, but very very nice”: Re-placing contemporary artists of Turkish origin

Contemporary visual artists from Turkey, who have left their ‘home’ for various reasons, such as migration or education, have emerged as a distinctive voice on the contemporary European art scene. What makes t...

Authors: Lora Sarıaslan

Erratum to: How to justify beliefs about the future - some epistemological remarks

Authors: Matthias Sonk

Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states

The key research question is to discuss and elaborate the potential value added that futures studies could provide for European citizens and political, social and economic institutions. In the article the prob...

Authors: Andres Viia, Anu Toots, Barbara Černič Mali, Bostjan Kerbler, Erik F. Øverland, Erik Terk, Külliki Tafel-Viia, Jari Kaivo-oja, Joe Finnerty, Mairéad Considine, Richard Sendi and Silja Lassur

Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective

In the face of accelerated change and genuine uncertainties in the business environment as well as the need of processing and interpreting the information coming from majority of sources, foresight research in...

Authors: Anna Kononiuk and Anna Sacio-Szymańska

The futures Map and its quality criteria

The article discusses quality criteria for futures research in the frame of so-called ‘Futures Map’. This article is the edited and developed version of the article (Futura 1: 60-77, 2015). Based on the comments ...

Authors: Osmo Kuusi, Kerstin Cuhls and Karlheinz Steinmüller

The topical collection on quality criteria for futures research: a short introduction

Authors: Osmo Kuusi, Kerstin Cuhls and Karlheinz Steinmüller

The changing nature of city tourism and its possible implications for the future of cities

City tourism is one of the fastest growing travel segments worldwide [18] and the changing nature of city tourism becomes increasingly apparent in many cities. Facilitated by mobile access to information, tourist...

Authors: Kerstin Bock

A new path in foresight validation? Discussing the socio-epistemic underpinning of foresight quality criteria

At present, there are different attempts to establish quality criteria for foresight based on both, the epistemic and the procedural level and all these attempts contribute to a scientific discourse on foresig...

Authors: Erduana Shala

The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) tool for technology anticipation and evaluation: introduction and quality criteria analysis

This paper contributes to the recent discussion about the standards and quality of futures research. The quality criteria proposed by Kuusi (Futura 1/15, 2015) concern the internal and external validity of a f...

Authors: Anna-Leena Vasamo

How to justify beliefs about the future - some epistemological remarks

This elaboration will explore the epistemology of futures studies. To address this, first the logi-cal ground of epistemology has to be examined, i.e., the laws of thought and in connection to that, the mere p...

Authors: Matthias Sonk

New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios

This paper proposes two criteria to assess and compare the quality of (integrated) scenarios, namely scenario traceability and scenario consistency. From a futures research perspective, both are identified as bei...

Authors: Hannah Kosow

EU mobility partnerships: a smart instrument for the externalization of migration control

The text deals with a policy instrument developed by the European Union, namely the so called Mobility Partnerships. Framed within the “Global Approach to Migration and Mobility” of the EU, this rather new con...

Authors: Stefan Brocza and Katharina Paulhart

The autonomous car—a blessing or a curse for the future of low carbon mobility? An exploration of likely vs. desirable outcomes

Certain developed countries have experienced the ‘peak car’ phenomenon. While this remains to be confirmed longitudinally, it looks certain that future mobility in Europe and elsewhere will be shaped by a part...

Authors: Nikolas Thomopoulos and Moshe Givoni

Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work pre...

Authors: J. Bernardino, A. Aggelakakis, M. Reichenbach, J. Vieira, M. Boile, J. Schippl, P. Christidis, A. Papanikolaou, A. Condeco, H. Garcia and M. Krail

Shifts, turning points and inertia exploring long-term industry trends in European transport

In this introduction to the topical collection on the “Future of Transport in Europe”, we argue that European transport regimes are at a turning point and despite the sector inertia, we can detect cultural, so...

Authors: Massimo Moraglio and Hans-Liudger Dienel

Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway

It is widely recognized that transformation of urban areas are urgent to meet the demands for more efficient and environmental friendly transportation in the future. Although there are general agreements on th...

Authors: Tom Erik Julsrud and Tanu Priya Uteng

Media ecology and the future ecosystemic society

This article discusses a possible future, in which the network society is deepening to become an internet-based ecosystemic society. The study of the possible societal impacts of the ‘media disruption’ brought...

Authors: Juho Ruotsalainen and Sirkka Heinonen

A resource-efficient and sufficient future mobility system for improved well-being in Europe

A transformation of our current transport system and individual mobility behaviour is an essential pre-requisite for attaining a desirable future that enables a life within environmental boundaries (“safe oper...

Authors: Moritz Kammerlander, Karin Schanes, Franziska Hartwig, Jill Jäger, Ines Omann and Michelle O’Keeffe

Wild cards in transport

The analysis of Wild Cards, potential low-likelihood but high-impact events, in foresight studies is important in order to counter the tendency of decision makers to deny major surprises. This paper presents the ...

Authors: Aharon Hauptman, Merja Hoppe and Yoel Raban

Participatory and prospective value network analysis: supporting transition towards biofuels in Finnish road transport

If the European energy and transport sectors are to meet the 2050 energy and climate policy targets, major socio-technical change (transition) is necessary. Along with new technologies, changes are required al...

Authors: Anu Tuominen, Nina Wessberg and Anna Leinonen

A strategic policy scenario analysis framework for the sustainable tourist development of peripheral small island areas – the case of Lefkada-Greece Island

The focus of the present paper is on the development of a methodological framework for guiding strategic decision-making towards the sustainable future development of peripheral small island regions, constitut...

Authors: Anastasia Stratigea and Vicky Katsoni

The future of individualization in Europe: changing configurations in employment and governance

The accelerated individualization brings immense promises for innovations in technological development, for improvement of the economic and political organization and for creativity in the cultural life of Eur...

Authors: Nikolai Genov

Post-Soviet Russian identity and its influence on European-Russian relations

The current crisis between the EU and Russia is influenced by much more serious factors than political tensions over Ukraine or the US political agenda. We suppose that to some extent it has represented a cons...

Authors: A. Likhacheva, I. Makarov and E. Makarova

The German Enquete Commission on growth, prosperity and quality of life: a model for futures studies?

From January 2011 until April 2013, the Enquete Commission “Growth, Prosperity, Quality of Life”, a political body appointed by the German parliament and consisting of 17 experts and 17 MPs, analysed aspects o...

Authors: Frederike Strunk

Integrating Delphi methodology to some classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: arctic maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight—a pilot study from Finland

This article presents a way how the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) analysis tools can be combined with the Delphi methodology, and especially with the BCG portfolio matrix analysis. The Delphi Method is one of ...

Authors: Yrjö Myllylä and Jari Kaivo-oja

Exploration of external indicators of social change in postmodern communities

The current study explores external indicators of social change through the lens of Sorokin’s theory of cultural dynamics; utilising case studies of two master built communities from vastly different cultural ...

Authors: Marta Botta

Living within the safe operating space: a vision for a resource efficient Europe

A desirable future critically depends on our ability to ensure the supply of key resources while simultaneously respecting planetary boundaries. This paper looks at the potential implications of living within ...

Authors: Meghan O’Brien, Franziska Hartwig, Karin Schanes, Moritz Kammerlander, Ines Omann, Henning Wilts, Raimund Bleischwitz and Jill Jäger

We are family? governance and the prospects for instability in Europe

While Europe has faced trials during the financial crisis and subsequent austerity, the European continent is still considered one of the most stable areas on the planet. This article argues, however, that the...

Authors: Shana Buchanan McLean

The future of European education: A political strategy & four action areas

The European integration project is confronting one of the greatest challenges in its recent history. The profound current financial crisis is jeopardising both trust in the process of integration and the supp...

Authors: Alfonso Diestro Fernández