In this study, we rely on the scenario technique, which allows us to present sociotechnical imaginaries in form of plausible and consistent depictions of the future. The competing sociotechnical imaginaries can thus be condensed into descriptive and tangible scenarios. We aim to show which imaginaries are currently dominating the debate and competing with each other by developing futures based on these imaginaries. By pointing possible futures out and putting them up for discussion, we also put their origin, i.e., the current imaginaries, up for discussion. Technical innovations that are under development or envisioned for the future represent the primary building blocks of our scenarios. We understand scenarios as “logical, plausible and realistic situations based on today’s knowledge, therefore giving an approximate idea of how the future may look. Whether, one day, the portrayed “possible future” does occur, is always uncertain” [[18], p.71]. However, we do not take specific probability of their occurrence into account. Rather, after conducting a comprehensive review of the literature, we identify key factors relevant to the future of public security and place them in relation to each other. The characteristics of these factors are varied and then ascribed to possible future developments. Each resulting set of factors is assessed with a view to plausibility and consistency. These factor sets each yield a competing sociotechnical imaginary.
Our methodological approach is grounded in the notion that the future can be actively shaped. While we must acknowledge that the future is not fully predictable and controllable, it is also not wholly random or chaotic [15, 31]. Indeed, the discipline of future studies holds that a number of divergent and alternative futures are possible [15, 20]. Furthermore, our current actions and decisions help determine which of them will prevail [31]. The goal of our methodological approach is to present tangible, plausible, and consistent images of the future, which allows the reflection of current debates about security technologies and can inform which actions in the present are best-suited to bringing about desired future states [21, 31, 40].
In the following, we describe our methods for the development of each scenario in greater detail. Our work was composed of four working steps (see Fig. 1), which is a typical subdivision in the literature on the scenario method [15, 23].
Analysis of the scenario environment
This first step aims to delimit and more closely define the subject of research by setting the focus, the time frame, and the geographical scope [42]. Our broader scenario environment is “public security in Germany” and our specific subject of research is “security technologies.” We have selected 10 to 15 years as a chronological horizon for our analysis. This timeframe seems suitable, for it is long enough to consider the effects resulting from the broad adoption of technologies currently at a nascent stage, yet not so long so as necessitate speculation concerning technological advancements that are marked by significant uncertainty.
In this step, we also analyze the factors influencing our subject of research, and to what extent. We first performed an explorative horizon scanning process, which is an increasingly used technique in the scenario methodology. It has the advantage of less bias in comparison to conventional forecasting methods [56]. This work considered a range of sources, from academic papers and news reports to podcasts and policy papers, while considering the following questions: “Which security technologies are already in use or under development worldwide? What impacts will result from the implementation of these new technologies?” We identified sources relevant to these questions while considering two criteria: First, we only considered sources that addressed one or more technologies in connection with security as well as society, politics, or economics. Second, we only selected sources that discussed technologies in use or currently under development. This approach yielded collection of 77 media stories and 32 policy papers published between 2013 and 2019. The media stories originated from various national and international periodicals and news sites. We also gathered position papers released by German political parties as well as policy papers published by political institutions and research organizations in Germany, the US, and UK. Papers were taken into consideration insofar as they contained policy recommendations or assessments related to security technologies. Finally, a workshop with experts from diverse professional backgrounds was held to identify current developments in public security in Germany.
Based on these data, we identified various factors that would appear to exert an influence over the development of public security in coming years. They comprise parameters, developments, and trends [31]. To this end, we conducted a qualitative assessment of the source material while identifying relevant factors in various domains, including politics, economics, technology, law, and the environment. As part of a multi-stage collaborative process designed to augment the validity of our assessments, we distilled the factors thus identified into a smaller list of 15 impact factors. We then considered these impact factors in relation to each other with the aim to identify key drivers of change while also revealing interdependencies between factors. In the scope of an impact assessment, three researchers individually valuated for each impact factor the respective influence on another factor on an ordinal scale. For each factor, we sum up how much the researchers estimate the influence of one factor to another (active sum). We also sum up how much one factor was influenced by another (passive sum). Subsequently, the three evaluations were compared. Although the researchers had different views on how high the influence of a certain factor is, no strongly deviating evaluations were found. In the next step, we calculated mean values from the individual evaluations, which are presented in Fig. 2.
The active and passive sums have been divided into four quadrants according to the mean values on each respective axis. Our interpretation of the quadrants is based on Kosow and Gaßner [31] and von Reibnitz [55]. Quadrant I contains dynamic key factors. They are characterized by a high degree of ambivalence and have strong reciprocal relationships with other factors. They are also particularly relevant for the design of strategies for the future. Quadrant II contains driving factors. These active or impulsive factors operate as a “lever” for future developments. Quadrant III contains inert factors that are not amenable to influence and also have little impact. The final Quadrant IV contains reactive factors. These factors are strongly driven by other factors and can therefore serve as a bellwether for other developments. We consider the factors in Quadrants I, II, and IV to be key factors. Figure 2 presents our results. The figure contains ten key factors that will drive technology’s increasing influence over security in Germany up to 2035. It also contains five inert factors that we deem less relevant.
Scenario projections
Based on our data from the literature review, we developed projections for each key factor along two different lines of growth. We identified the dimensions collaboratively in a dedicated review of our qualitative literature analysis by considering on which dimensions all coding would fit. These dimensions seek to anticipate the development of each factor, as explained below. This is a necessary step for our subsequent consistency analysis, in order to ensure each key factor remains internally coherent.
In the following, we demonstrate this step with reference to one key factor, “Policing 2.0”: A significant portion of the codings relate to a number of security technologies that could potentially be used in the domain of policingFootnote 2. Derived from this, security technologies will significantly influence the future of policing, so the extent to which such technologies are actually employed by the police was selected as the first dimension (see Fig. 3, Y-Scale). Our analysis additionally revealed that the scope of the powers and duties accorded to the police will represent an important aspect of policing in the coming years. Specifically, security technologies are already transforming how police do their work, thus creating frictions with existing rules governing police powersFootnote 3. Accordingly, in our graph, the X-axis maps the scope of police authority, which can be restricted or expanded in the future. From these two dimensions, three plausible projections emerge (see Fig. 3) for we rejected as implausible a future in which new technology is not used while police powers are simultaneously increased.
A list of the projections for each key factor can be found in Table 1.
Scenario building
The software application Scenario Manager (SCMI) was used to create the scenarios. First, the projections were placed into relation to each other in a consistency analysis. Specifically, after the projected key factors were compared in pairs, we decided consensually whether both projections could occur simultaneously, without contradiction. Using a consistency matrix, pairwise consistency ratings were assigned using a scale of 1 (total inconsistency) to 5 (strong mutual support). For example, greater reliance on technology by the police was seen as very consistent with a high rate of innovation in the future. By contrast, we considered a slow pace of innovation in combination with the adoption of new technologies by government authorities responsible for security to be two developments unlikely to occur simultaneously in the future.
To minimize the influence of personal bias, individual assessments were first made by each researcher and then, in the case of divergent assessments, an agreement was reached by consensus. This consistency analysis resulted in a large number of “projection bundles.” These bundles represent internally consistent pictures of the future. In a subsequent step, these projection bundles were tested in for similarities. Therefore, a cluster analysis was performed to compress similar projection bundles to be consistent to a manageable number of future [11]. The cluster analysis and resulting scree diagram indicated that the projection bundles can be most reasonably divided into two scenarios. Accordingly, we opted for two distinctive rather than three or more less delimitable scenarios. This offers the advantage that projections are clearly assigned to a factor, which guides the scenario writing more clearly. In addition, the differences between the scenarios are easier to grasp. Table 1 shows, for each scenario, the share attributable to each projection within the respective projection bundle. Percentages above 65Footnote 4 indicate a clear projection within the scenario. If alternative projections are also conceivable, but the percentage is less than 25, these should not be considered in scenario-writing stage. A projection is considered characteristic of a scenario if it only appears in that scenario. The unique, characteristic and alternative projections are the “scenario elements” of each the scenario [11]. In the scenario-writing stage, the insights from the literature are used to interpret these scenario elements and elaborate two sociotechnical imaginaries.
Scenario writing
The scenario-writing stage aims to translate the scenario elements that have been distilled in a systematic way into consistent, plausible, and easily accessible pictures of future [17, 52]. In the following, we use a written format that addresses the key factors step-by-step, differentiating them into a coherent narrative about a possible future. To this end, we assemble the insights gathered thus far and seek to synthesize them into a seamless and consistent picture [52]. In each scenario, the individual key factors are contextualized and further developed. Potential manifestations of the factors are elaborated and used to flesh out the scenarios, based on the insights developed in the literature review. We differentiate between driving (active), driven (reactive), and dynamic key factors. In our scenario writing, we strive for a factual presentation, without literary embellishments. Nevertheless, our scenario writing is based in part on a creative process that is influenced by the experiences and assessments of the authors. Accordingly, scenario writing can never be fully objective or devoid of individual bias. Subjective evaluations were reduced based on critical dialog between the authors. The scenarios are thus grounded in the findings of the preceding methodological steps (see Table 1). The two scenarios are compared to each other based on the key factors. Driving, driven, and dynamic key factors (Table 1) are emphasized according to their role in each narrative. Inert factors are displayed as well, but nor projections were made.