Table 9 Original coding (code content), their frequency (codes), and themes (descriptive codes) from the first round of farmer interviews
From: Farmers’ futures: an application of the Delphi method in the context of Finnish agriculture
Descriptive code | Codes | Code content |
|---|---|---|
Climate change | 12 | Climate change Climate change continues—so does farming here Climate change a significant factor Feed producers in the future Like Central Europe (2 harvests) Sugar beet not cultivated More extreme weather Milder winters, longer falls Pests and weeds Discontinued production areas (sugar, rapeseed, malting barley) New crops No competition with cereal harvests—through cows |
Larger farms | 10 | Larger units Large cattle farms Large farms like in Central Europe Fewer domestic animals (cows) Smaller farms discontinued Larger farms Larger farms Sizes of farms will increase Larger unit sizes Larger units |
Fewer farms | 9 | Only a few active farms (approx. 20,000) Few estates Run by a handful of people Production centralized on larger farms Centralization Discontinued farms The number of farms will decrease Fewer farms Fewer active farmers |
Automation | 7 | Automation Increased mechanical automation Mechanization Machines without people Satellite fields Industrial production Less oil and fewer people |
Technological development | 7 | No large and heavy tractors Trust in technology will increase Electric tractors Technological development Advances in technological development Leaps in technological development Technologization |
Companies and investors | 7 | Ownership separates from labor Attracted investors Large international companies do business Major corporations Centralized production employees Companies Owned by businesses |
Value of domestic products increases | 5 | Valuation of domestic products will increase Purity and cleanliness will be valued more than now Hopefully, people will understand the value of food production Bright future Production hygiene |
Energy taken into consideration | 3 | Energy issues will be taken into consideration Energy will be a key issue Cereals will be dried in another location |
Emphasized impact of policies | 3 | Global policies and markets will have an impact Impact of policies (taxes, etc.) Policies as the deciding factor |
End of production | 3 | No greenhouse production I wonder if there will be any agriculture left in Finland Discontinued dairy farms |
Circular economy | 3 | The importance of carbon sequestering will be understood Closed cycles The use of water will change |
Company-owned farms | 3 | No entrepreneur-driven farms Company-owned farms will grow Company-owned farms (thousands of hectares and animals) |
Local production | 3 | Local production will increase Local production will grow More locally produced food |
Increased use of recycled nutrients | 3 | Increased use of recycled nutrients Fewer extracted nutrients Nutrient recycling |
Business-as-usual | 2 | Fields will remain cultivated Food will be produced as now |
Fields freed for other purposes | 2 | Land will be available through bankruptcies Fields will be freed for other purposes (energy production) |
Emergency supply | 2 | Emergency supply The nation should be self-sufficient |
Higher yields | 2 | Higher yields Increased yields |
More diverse crops | 2 | Versatility through crops Changes in crops—from cereals to others |
More innovation | 2 | More ideas Crop factories |
Optimization | 2 | Everything will be optimized Optimization will be needed—Will we have the money? |
Localization | 2 | Localization New migration to agricultural areas, small farms will be available for sale |
Organic production | 2 | Organic production will grow Organic production will not grow as much as expected |
No bureaucracy | 1 | No anxiety from bureaucracy |
Time allocation | 1 | Time allocation under control |
Specialization | 1 | Standing out from others |
No subsidies | 1 | No dependence on subsidies |
Fragmented field structure | 1 | Far from the farm estate |
More attractive production | 1 | Attractiveness of production will increase |
Local energy production | 1 | Local energy production |
GMO | 1 | GMO questions |
Higher production costs | 1 | Higher costs due to natural conditions |
New products | 1 | Growth in other agricultural products (experiences, tourism, horses, fishing) |
Ownership separated from labor | 1 | Working on the farm |
Land value increases | 1 | Land value will increase |
Steps back | 1 | Steps back will be necessary |
Profitability | 1 | Major change in profitability |
Higher prices | 1 | Costs of primary production will start to increase |
Lower subsidies | 1 | Lower subsidies |
Business model | 1 | Business-oriented |
Stricter laws | 1 | Stricter legislation |
Global under-supply of food | 1 | Global under-supply of food |
Development | 1 | New wave of production development |
Shortage of farmland | 1 | Basic 100-hectare parcels will not be available |
Protection until ruination | 1 | The EU will be a playing field for idealists—agriculture will be protected until ruination |
Field management based on leases | 1 | Field management based on leases |
Smaller farms specialize | 1 | Smaller farms will specialize |
Cleared farmland | 1 | Fields will be cleared once again |
Finnish products in global markets | 1 | Global demand for Finnish products |
Family-owned farms develop | 1 | Family-owned farms will grow and specialize |
Carbon sequestering understood | 1 | The importance of carbon sequestering will be understood |
No unproductive farming aiming to collect subsidies | 1 | No unproductive farming aiming to collect subsidies |
More secondary occupations | 1 | Farming as a secondary occupation—jobs elsewhere |