Table 1 Explanation of the used descriptors
From: What’s next in hospital digitization? A Delphi-based scenario study
Influence field | Descriptor | Hypothesis |
|---|---|---|
Technologies | Efficiency | Over the next 10 years, the potential to increase hospital productivity through digital technologies will be realized |
Assistance | Over the next 10 years, assistive systems will be used in all core hospital processes; e.g., assistive care robots | |
Autonomous | Over the next 10 years, fully automated autonomous systems will be used in secondary hospital processes; for example, inventory and ordering systems | |
Qualification | Over the next 10 years, all healthcare professionals will be trained or upskilled with digital competencies | |
Staff | Over the next 10 years, the labor market will provide sufficient IT specialists to operate complex digital systems and project managers to implement digitization | |
Investments | Over the next 10 years, (additional) investment budgets will be allocated for equipment, infrastructure, and training to implement the digital transformation | |
Structures and regulation | Ambulantization | Over the next 10 years, there will be a shift from inpatient to outpatient services, regardless of whether they are provided in a hospital setting or other care structures |
Integrated care | Over the next 10 years, integrated service provision will take place in which sector boundaries do not (or no longer) play a role | |
Competition | Over the next 10 years, service offerings will form according to regional needs in free competition, without government planning of needs | |
Reimbursement | Over the next 10 years, the compensation system will be outcome- or performance-oriented; e.g., through pay-for-performance elements | |
Service planning | Over the next 10 years, outpatient and inpatient services will be planned by a single planning entity | |
Regional need | Over the next 10 years, innovative care models will be available on the market that are based on regional conditions | |
Business models | Value creation | Over the next 10 years, elements of hospital value creation will be outsourced to digital service providers; e.g., in the context of software-as-a-service partnerships or AI solutions based on cloud computing |
Patient journey | Over the next 10 years, the patient journey will be controlled by care platforms; e.g., the allocation of resources (including appointment slots) depending on utilization or quality | |
Market extension | Over the next 10 years, services in the second and third healthcare markets will gain in importance as a result of the digital transformation; e.g., the use of health apps | |
External player | Over the next 10 years, digital companies from outside the industry will penetrate the healthcare sector with services; e.g., Google, Apple, Tencent, Xiaomi etc | |
Privatization | Over the next 10 years, private sector-oriented companies will gain importance in healthcare delivery | |
Platforms | Over the next 10 years, citizens will ask for innovative care offerings or be directed specifically through platforms to the providers with the best/fastest service | |
Date usage | Interoperability | Over the next 10 years, the interacting systems will be fully compatible in terms of their interfaces; e.g., integration of wearable data into the HIS |
Digital maturity | Over the next 10 years, all hospitals will be fully digitized, as measured by maturity models available today, such as DigitalRadar | |
Data platforms | Over the next 10 years, (government or private) data platforms will be available and all hospitals will be comprehensively connected to them; e.g., for training AI algorithms | |
Real-time data | Over the next 10 years, services will be managed on the basis of data collected in real time; e.g., admission to an emergency room based on currently available triage data (expected waiting time) in the hospital | |
Data protection | Over the next 10 years, data protection legislation will limit data use within the hospital and interaction with third parties | |
Cybersecurity | Over the next 10 years, minimum cybersecurity requirements will increase | |
(digital) health behavior | Digital affinity | Over the next 10 years, digital applications, media, or devices will be used by a broad range of the population in the healthcare sector |
Digital interaction | Over the next 10 years, individuals will interact with healthcare providers via digital applications to monitor their health, collect data, and manage their behavior | |
Gatekeeper | Over the next 10 years, digital applications will be used for initial diagnosis, recommending the optimal care provider in terms of availability and range of treatments, or prescribing them through specific care contracts | |
Prevention | Over the next 10 years, there will be a shift from curative to preventive medicine | |
Transparency | Over the next 10 years, transparency about the quality of service delivery will change; e.g., the digitally available comparative data from different hospitals on the outcome of services | |
Health literacy | In the next 10 years, the health literacy competence of the population will improve; e.g., the handling and evaluation of health information and data |