Table 2 Methodological process for the formulation of future scenarios
From: Possible future scenarios of the general health social security system in Colombia for the year 2033
Stage | Activity | Results | Methods |
|---|---|---|---|
Building of a database | Identifying the achievements, capabilities, and values of the GHSSS | Description of Colombia’s GHSSS | Literature review. Population projections with system dynamics |
Delimitation of the system and of its general context | Focusing on the main dimensions of analysis | ||
Description of the system and its components | Identification of drivers | Drivers’ analysis: Environmental Institutional Technological | Literature review: Semi-structured interviews to identify and classify the key factors affecting Colombia’s GHSSS |
Identification of stakeholders and strategic decisions | Level of importance of values Perception of the political power of stakeholders | Defining GHSSS stakeholders and the questionnaire for the in-depth interview with categories contributing to identify the changes and the possible future alternatives, lasting for one hour. | |
Identification of key variables by a group of decision makers | Identification of the factors of breakdown and issues emerging | Twenty-two in-depth interviews were conducted with different stakeholders, transcribed, and coded using the Atlas.ti software according to the categories identified a priori | |
Formulation of possible future scenarios and the scenario to be achieved | Create sets of questions and hypotheses for each scenario | Scenario validation workshop and formulation of the scenario to be achieved | Reflection exercise and in-depth analysis of the responses already coded to capture the existing relationships, detecting emerging phenomena in the topic of study, and questioning the status quo of the ideas obtained in the literature review. |
Develop the scenarios around the key variables and actors | Identification of critical uncertainties for the development of future scenarios through the answers given in the interviews. Generation of the narrative for each of the future scenarios based on the selected axes and the interviewees’ answers. | ||
Required actions for the implementation of the chosen scenario | Recommendations | Aims and strategies for achieving the chosen scenario |