Table 1 Comparison of the principal scenario development techniques
From: Possible future scenarios of the general health social security system in Colombia for the year 2033
Scenario characteristics | Intuitive logic methodology | La prospective methodology | Probabilistic modified trends (PMT) methodology |
|---|---|---|---|
Purpose | Multiple, from a one-time activity to make sense of situations and developing strategy, to an ongoing learning activity. | Usually, a one-time activity associated with developing more effective policy and strategic decisions. | A one-time activity to make extrapolative predictions and policy evaluations. |
Scope | Can be either broad or narrow, ranging from global, regional, country, and industry to a specific issue. | Generally, a narrow scope but examines a broad range of factors within that scope. | Scope is narrowly focused on the probability and impact of specific events. |
Methodology type | Process-oriented approach, essentially subjective and qualitative. | Outcome-oriented approach, which is directed, objective, quantitative, and analytical relying on complex computer-based analysis and modeling. | Outcome-oriented approach, very directed, objective, quantitative, and analytical using computer-based extrapolative simulation models. |
Tools | Generic tools like brainstorming, STEEP analysis, and stakeholder analysis. | Proprietary and structural tools like Micmac, SMIC, and Mactor analysis, etc. | Proprietary tools like trends impact and cross-impact analysis, etc. |
Developing scenarios set | Defining the scenario logic as organizing themes or principles. | Matrices of sets of possible assumptions based on the key variables for the future. | Monte Carlo simulations create an envelope of uncertainty around base forecasts. |
Evaluation criteria | Coherence, comprehensiveness, internal consistency, and novelty, supported by rigorous structural analysis and logic. | Coherence, comprehensiveness, and internal consistency tested by rigorous analysis; plausible and verifiable in retrospect. | Plausible and verifiable in retrospect. |