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Table 1 RTI methodology steps and forecasting methods used in each step

From: Radical Technology Inquirer: a methodology for holistic, transparent and participatory technology foresight

Methodology step

Used methods

Relevant section of this paper

(Reference to studies with comparable interpretation of the method)

Defining ARTs

Horizon scanning for factual evidence for identifying weak signals

This section

(Comp. with horizon scanning by volunteers in [8])

Defining the maturity of ARTs

Own criteria

This section

(Comp. NASAa)

Defining GVNs and respective dominant and challenger regimes

Formulating images of future

This section

(Comp [25].)

Qualitative assessment of the impact of ART on GVN

Identifying and assessing weak signals (weak signal as an indicator of a resolving a bottleneck)

This section

(Comp [10].)

Quantitative scoring of the weak signals

Assessing the maximum potential impact of the weak signal on the GVN

Assessment of the scale of impacts based on question lists

This section

(Comp. Tetlock et al., 2015)

Ordering of the ARTs based on scoring and maturity

 

This section

Iteration

Expert panels

This section

(Comp [52].)

Policy recommendations to enable or to prepare for challenger regimes

Requirement-related backcasting

Next section

(Comp [18]. )

Follow-up

Comparing the results of RTI 2013 and RTI 2018

Next section

  1. ahttps://www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/scan/engineering/technology/technology_readiness_level