Methodology step | Used methods | Relevant section of this paper (Reference to studies with comparable interpretation of the method) |
---|---|---|
Defining ARTs | Horizon scanning for factual evidence for identifying weak signals | This section (Comp. with horizon scanning by volunteers in [8]) |
Defining the maturity of ARTs | Own criteria | This section (Comp. NASAa) |
Defining GVNs and respective dominant and challenger regimes | Formulating images of future | This section (Comp [25].) |
Qualitative assessment of the impact of ART on GVN | Identifying and assessing weak signals (weak signal as an indicator of a resolving a bottleneck) | This section (Comp [10].) |
Quantitative scoring of the weak signals | Assessing the maximum potential impact of the weak signal on the GVN Assessment of the scale of impacts based on question lists | This section (Comp. Tetlock et al., 2015) |
Ordering of the ARTs based on scoring and maturity | This section | |
Iteration | Expert panels | This section (Comp [52].) |
Policy recommendations to enable or to prepare for challenger regimes | Requirement-related backcasting | Next section (Comp [18]. ) |
Follow-up | Comparing the results of RTI 2013 and RTI 2018 | Next section |