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Table 2 The cluster centres (mean value) in each scenario regarding the general operating environment (those in bold ones are the ones that stand out between the clusters; scale from − 3 to 3)

From: Five transition pathways to renewable energy futures—scenarios from a Delphi study on key drivers and policy options

 

1. Business as usual

2. Energy saving and decarbonisation

3. Climate-friendly transformation

4. Green growth

5. Degrowth

The role of EU strengthens.

0.50 [2.12]

0.20 [1.64]

0.00 [N.A.]a

2.33 [0.82]

0.71 [1.50]

The importing of energy becomes more difficult.

1.00 [0]

0.40 [1.14]

2.00 [N.A.]a

− 1.50 [1.22]

0.00 [1.00]

The profitability in RE production increases.

2.00 [0.00]

1.60 [0.89]

− 1.00 [N.A.]a

2.50 [0.84]

2.29 [0.95]

The consumption of RE becomes cheaper.

0.00 [2.83]

1.00 [0.71]

2.00 [N.A.]a

1.50 [1.38]

2.00 [1.53]

Climate-friendly solutions increase, and climate policy strengthens in the USA.

− 1.00 [0.00]

− 0.40 [1.52]

2.00 [N.A.]a

1.67 [1.03]

1.57 [0.53]

Climate-friendly solutions increase in big countries like China and India.

− 0.50 [0.71]

0.80 [1.10]

3.00 [N.A.]a

2.17 [0.41]

2.14 [0.38]

International cooperation climate actions increase.

1.00 [2.83]

1.40 [0.55]

3.00 [N.A.]a

3.00 [0.00]

2.29 [0.49]

NGOs’ climate actions and power in society increase.

0.00 [1.41]

1.00 [1.00]

0.00 [N.A.]a

2.67 [0.52]

2.29 [0.76]

Climate actions of individual citizens increase.

2.00 [1.41]

1.20 [0.45]

3.00 [N.A.]a

2.50 [0.55]

2.14 [0.69]

Climate-friendly values strengthen in society.

− 1.00 [0.00]

1.40 [0.89]

3.00 [N.A.]a

2.67 [0.52]

2.00 [0.58]

Citizens’ own RE production is socially appreciated.

− 0.50 [0.71]

1.00 [1.00]

− 1.00 [N.A.]a

2.83 [0.41]

2.00 [0.58]

Economic systems as a whole shift to climate-friendliness.

− 2.50 [0.71]

1.20 [0.84]

3.00 [N.A.]a

1.67 [1.21]

2.00 [1.00]

Economic growth is decelerated in a controlled manner.

− 3.00 [0.00]

− 1.40 [1.14]

− 2.00 [N.A.]a

− 2.00 [0.89]

0.57 [0.98]

Referendums about energy policy become more popular.

0.00 [2.83]

− 1.60 [0.55]

2.00 [N.A.]a

− 0.50 [1.05]

1.14 [0.69]

The power of citizens increases in Finnish energy policy.

− 2.50 [0.71]

− 0.60 [0.55]

− 1.00 [N.A.]a

0.50 [1.76]

0.71 [0.76]

Young people’s possibilities of influencing increase.

− 2.50 [0.71]

− 0.40 [1.14]

− 1.00 [N.A.]a

1.83 [0.75]

1.14 [0.69]

  1. aClimate-friendly transformation scenario cluster contains only one response