Table 4 Combination of input variables resulting in AGI safety being more cost effective than losing industry interventions at the margin now
Input variable | Model 1 | Model 2 |
|---|---|---|
Cost of interventions ($ million) global industry loss | 70 | 5 |
Time horizon of effectiveness of interventions (years) global industry loss | 10 | 5 |
Probability per year of a global loss of industry | 1E-4 | 5E-4 |
Probability per year of a 10% loss of industry | 0.001 | – |
Reduction in far future potential due to global loss of industry with current preparation | 0.03 | – |
Reduction in far future potential due to 10% loss of industry with current preparation | 3E-4 | – |
Mitigation of far future impact of 100% industrial loss with planning and R&D as well | – | 0.01 |
Mitigation of far future impact of 10% industrial loss with planning and R&D as well | 0.03 | - |
Output variable | Model 1 | Model 2 |
Ratio of money to interventions at the margin now mean cost effectiveness to AGI safety mean cost effectiveness | 0.72 | 0.64 |