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Table 1 Losing industry interventions input variables

From: Long-term cost-effectiveness of interventions for loss of electricity/industry compared to artificial general intelligence safety

Input variable

Model 1

Model 2

5th percentile

95th percentile

5th percentile

95th percentile

Cost of interventions ($ million)

10

70

5

150

Time horizon of effectiveness of interventions (years)

10

50

5

50

Probability per year of a global loss of industry

0.01%

1%

0.05%

0.15%

Probability per year of a 10% loss of industry

0.1%

10%

0.1%

1%

Reduction in far future potential due to global loss of industry with current preparation

3%

30%a

5%

10%

Reduction in far future potential due to 10% loss of industry with current preparation

0.03%

40%

0.001%

0.1%

Mitigation of far future impact of global loss of industry due to ALLFED so far

0.003%

0.3%

0.001%

0.01%

Mitigation of far future impact of 10% industrial loss from ALLFED so far

–

–

0.001%

0.01%

Reduction in far future potential due to global loss of industry if $30 million additional preparation

0.3%

30%

  

Mitigation of far future impact of 100% industrial loss with planning and R&D as well

  

1%

5%

Mitigation of far future impact of 10% industrial loss with planning and R&D as well

3%

30%

2%

10%

Moral hazard for total loss of industry: loss in net effectiveness of interventions

− 3%

3%

0%

0%

Moral hazard for 10% industrial loss: loss in net effectiveness of interventions

− 3%

3%

0%

0%

  1. aThe global loss poll gave people ranges, including < 0.1%, 0.1% to 1%, 1% to 10%, and 10% to 100%. All responses in the range were recorded as approximately the geometric mean of the range. Half of people were therefore recorded as 30% loss of the far future. If the people had been able to provide exact values, likely one of them would have recorded greater than 40%, which was the upper bound for the 10% loss of industry, making these results consistent. However, even with the constraints of the data, the mean and median are higher for the global loss of industry than the 10% loss of industry