Input variable | Model 1 | Model 2 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
5th percentile | 95th percentile | 5th percentile | 95th percentile | |
Cost of interventions ($ million) | 10 | 70 | 5 | 150 |
Time horizon of effectiveness of interventions (years) | 10 | 50 | 5 | 50 |
Probability per year of a global loss of industry | 0.01% | 1% | 0.05% | 0.15% |
Probability per year of a 10% loss of industry | 0.1% | 10% | 0.1% | 1% |
Reduction in far future potential due to global loss of industry with current preparation | 3% | 30%a | 5% | 10% |
Reduction in far future potential due to 10% loss of industry with current preparation | 0.03% | 40% | 0.001% | 0.1% |
Mitigation of far future impact of global loss of industry due to ALLFED so far | 0.003% | 0.3% | 0.001% | 0.01% |
Mitigation of far future impact of 10% industrial loss from ALLFED so far | – | – | 0.001% | 0.01% |
Reduction in far future potential due to global loss of industry if $30 million additional preparation | 0.3% | 30% | Â | Â |
Mitigation of far future impact of 100% industrial loss with planning and R&D as well | Â | Â | 1% | 5% |
Mitigation of far future impact of 10% industrial loss with planning and R&D as well | 3% | 30% | 2% | 10% |
Moral hazard for total loss of industry: loss in net effectiveness of interventions | − 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Moral hazard for 10% industrial loss: loss in net effectiveness of interventions | − 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% |