From: Generating a vision for smart sustainable cities of the future: a scholarly backcasting approach
Questions for backcasting steps | Methods |
---|---|
Step 1: Detail strategic problem orientation (part 1) | Study design and problem formulation |
1. What is the socio-technical system to be studied? | |
2. What are the aim, purpose, and objectives of the futures study in relation to this system? | |
3. What are the long–term targets declared by the goal-oriented backcasting approach? | |
4. What are the goals of sustainability these targets are translated to for scenario analysis? | |
Step 2: Detail strategic problem orientation (part 2) | Trend analysis and problem analysis |
1. What are the key trends and expected developments related to the socio-technical system to be studied? | |
2. What are the major problems, issues, and challenges of sustainability and the underlying causes—the current situation? | |
3. How is the problem defined and what are the possible problem perceptions? | |
Step 3: Generate a sustainable future vision | Creativity method |
1. What are the demands (terms of reference) for the future vision? | |
2. How does the future sustainable socio-technical system and need fulfillment look like? | |
3. How is the future vision different from the existing socio-technical systems? | |
4. What is the rationale for developing the future vision? 5. Which sustainability problems, issues, and challenges have been solved | |
6. or mitigated by meeting the stated objectives and thus achieving the specified targets and goals? 7. Which advanced technologies and their novel applications have been | |
8. used in the future vision? | |
Step 4: Conduct empirical research | Case study method |
1. What category of case studies is most relevant to the future vision? | |
2. How many case studies are to be conducted and what kind of phenomena do they intend to illuminate? | |
3. What is the rationale for the methodological approach adopted? | |
4. To what extent can this empirical research generate new ideas and serve to illustrate the theories and their effects underlying the future vision so as to underpin its potential and practicality? | |
Step 5: Specify and merge the components of the socio-technical system to be developed | Creativity method |
1. What specific design concepts, planning practices, and technology elements are necessary? | |
2. What kind of urban centers and labs are necessary? | |
3. What spatial dimensions and scale stabilizations should be considered? | |
4. How can all of the ingredients be integrated into a model for strategic smart sustainable city planning and development? | |
Step 6: Perform backcasting backward-looking analysis | Backcasting analysis |
1. What urban and technological changes are necessary for achieving the future vision? | |
2. What structural, institutional, and regulatory changes are necessary? | |
3. How have the necessary changes been realized and what stakeholders are necessary? | |
4. What are the opportunities, potentials, benefits, and other effects of the future vision? |