Table 3 Values of framework indicators for passenger cars in three scenarios in 2011, 2030 and 2050
From: CO2 reduction costs and benefits in transport: socio-technical scenarios
2011 | 2030 | 2050 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAU | Recommendation | Technology | BAU | Recommendation | Technology | ||
Population (> 6 years old, million) | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
Number of trips (per year per person) | 1031 | 1029 | 1029 | 1029 | 1027 | 1027 | 1027 |
Total trips (billion) | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
Modal share of car (% of trips) | 59% | 59% | 51% | 59% | 58% | 38% | 58% |
Car trips (billion) | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 3.4 |
Avg. length of car trip (km) | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 17 |
Car transport volume (billion pkm) | 53.0 | 56.9 | 51.0 | 56.9 | 58.8 | 42.9 | 58.8 |
Avg. occupancy (persons) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
Car mileage (billion km) | 38.7 | 41.5 | 35.5 | 41.5 | 42.9 | 23.6 | 42.9 |
Avg. energy consumption (kWh/km) | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
Car energy consumption (TWh) | 23.9 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 4.9 | 8.3 |
Energy CO2 content (kg/kWh) | 0.24 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
Car CO2 emissions (Mt) | 5.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Transport intensity (km/person/year) | 13,717 | 13,608 | 13,425 | 13,608 | 13,528 | 13,354 | 13,528 |
of which by car | 10,553 | 10,413 | 9338 | 10,413 | 10,317 | 7519 | 10,317 |
Energy efficiency (pkm/kWh) | 2.4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 8.2 | 6.3 |
Car energy efficiency (pkm/kWh) | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 7.1 |
CO2 intensity (kg/person/year) | 1362 | 833 | 655 | 656 | 665 | 181 | 168 |
of which by car | 1155 | 670 | 498 | 511 | 525 | 85 | 94 |