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Table 3 Guiding questions for each step in the backcasting study

From: Backcasting in futures studies: a synthesized scholarly and planning approach to strategic smart sustainable city development

Questions for backcasting steps

Methods and tools

Step 1: strategic problem orientation

What is the (socio-technical) system to be studied?

Which societal needs/functions are addressed by this system?

What are important trends and development related to this system/needs?

What are major sustainability problems and what are the causes?

How is the problem defined and what are possible problem perceptions?

Who are stakeholders and what are their opinions concerning sustainability problems and possible solutions?

Problem analysis; actor/stakeholder analysis; system analysis; modeling methods; interactive methods

Step 2: generating sustainable future visions

What are the demands (terms of reference) for the future vision?

How does the future sustainable socio-technical system and need fulfillment look like?

Which sustainability problems have been solved?

Which technologies have been used in the future vision?

How are culture and the social and economic structure different?

How do people live in the future vision?

How can it be made more sustainable and more attractive?

Creativity methods; design methods; interactive methods; modeling methods; visualization methods

Step 3: backcasting analysis

What technological changes are necessary for achieving the future vision?

What cultural and behavioral changes are necessary?

What structural, institutional, and regulatory changes are necessary?

How have necessary changes been realized and what stakeholder (groups) are necessary?

Is it possible to define milestones for the identified technological, cultural, and structural changes when looking back from the vision?

Backcasting analysis

Step 4: elaboration, design, analysis and defining follow-up agenda

What is a more detailed design of the socio-technical system in the future vision?

What are the results of different analyses (social, consumer, environmental, economic, etc.)?

What are drivers, barriers, and conditions for the achieving the future vision?

What could different stakeholder groups (research, government, companies, public interest) do and what should be on the action agenda?

Which activities can be started now and who should do them?

Elaborate a specific follow-up proposal that contributes to the system change and define who should contribute and what should be contributed?

Design methods; analytical methods such as impact assessment and technology assessment; planning methods

  1. Source: Quist et al. [56]