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Table 5 Evaluating the risk of system components on the achievement of the objective

From: Using systems thinking to design actionable futures: a nuclear weapons example

  Description Impact (0–100) Likelihood (0–10) Risk Rank
  Loyalist
R1 No social support 70 2 140 11
R2 Unable to maintain public law and order 50 3 150 8
R3 Unable to suppress Islamic Faction 80 5 400 3
R4 Infiltration by Islamists 20 6 120 13
  Militants
R5 Have widespread social support 50 3 150 8
R6 Can effectively exploit media and information systems 30 4 120 13
R7 Have international assistance 50 6 300 5
  Islamic Faction
R8 Are willing to employ nuclear weapons 90 3 270 7
R9 Are able to counter capability of Loyalists 80 5 400 3
  International Intervention
R10 India conducts first strike 20 5 100 15
R11 India not supportive 60 1 60 18
R12 US not supportive 70 1 70 16
R13 Internal resistance to intervention is high 70 6 420 2
  Internal Stability
R14 Low level of support for democracy or Loyalists 70 2 140 11
R15 High negative impact of global warming 10 7 70 16
R16 Loss of law and order functions 50 3 150 8
  Nuclear Capability     
R17 Unable to locate all nuclear threats 90 8 720 1
R18 Willingness to utilise for short term gains 100 3 300 5