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Table 4 Possible scenarios for the future of media and politics in Iran

From: The application of causal layered analysis to understand the present conditions and possible futures of media and politics in Iran

Scenario (I): media struggle Scenario (II): diverse media Scenario (III): surveillance media
Semi-totalitarian state remains More democratic state emerges State grows to more totalitarian regime
Oligopoly media market with state regulatory dominance, controlling media content and infrastructures More competitive media market with multi stakeholders especially on infrastructures, regulatory state without ownership Media market reduces to less state competitor from different state sectors, no public or private sector particularly in infrastructures
Fragile civil society More powerful civil society Less powerful civil society
No evolutionary transformation in media technology Some revolutionary transformation occurs, to some extent free of state control or surveillance Surveillance technologies serve state and private sectors to block or filter alternative voices
Traditionalism vs. modernism Modernism discourse predominance Traditionalism discourse supremacy