Table 1 Overview of tools and aspects addressed in the reviewed literature
From: Methods for assessing future scenarios from a sustainability perspective
Case study | Tools | Environmental aspects considered | Social aspects considered | ICT? | Time frame |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arushanyan et al. (2017) [31] | SAFS | Land, water, chemicals, mineral and energy use, GHG emissions | Participation and influence in society, health conditions, equity and justice, social cohesion, and learning and education | Yes | 2060 |
Martire et al. (2015) [32] | SIA | Energy use, GHG, air pollution | Employment | No | 2020 |
König et al. (2013) [33] | FoPIA | Abiotic resources (water, soil), biotic resources (biodiversity), ecosystems (land, soil, water) | Work, quality of life (health, life expectancy, income), food security | No | Between 2015 and 2030 depending on case study |
Baard et al. (2012) [34] | Checklists, qualitative mapping of consequences, Goal conflict analysis, CBA | GHG emissions biodiversity, coastal defense and land use | Health and safety, working life, housing, equity | No | Two planning horizons: 2030 and 2060 |
Kowalski et al. (2009) [35] | Qualitative mapping, LCA, PMCA | Climate change Air quality, Rational use of resources, water quality. Cumulated energy input Cumulated material input Phosphorus Nitrogen AOX CSB Noise Security of supply | Regional self-determinacy, social cohesion, employment, effect on public spending, import dependency, noise, quality of landscape, social justice, ecological justice. | No | 2020 |
Svenfelt et al. in Fauré (2016) [36] | Goal conflict analysis | Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives |  | No | 2060 |
Swedish Energy Agency (2016) [37] | Goal conflict analysis | Impacts on forests and agricultural land, emissions to air and water, impact on ecosystems, bird species, chemical and toxic substances released in the environment | Â | No | 2035 and towards 2050 |
Sheate et al. (2008) [38] | Qualitative impact assessment | Biodiversity, protection of natural resources, energy | Health, equity, culture | No | 2030 |
Cartmell et al. (2006) [39] | Qualitative impact assessment | Environmental performance and Flexibility | Economic performance, Social impact, | No | n.s |
Tzanopolous et al. (2011) [40] | NA, qualitative impact assessment | Biodiversity, natural resources | Education, health and elderly care, cultural heritage, with the addition of local development, local participation and institutional efficiency. | No | Approx. 2035 |
Boron et al. (2016) [41] | NA, qualitative impact assessment | To conserve species richness and diversity, maintain ecosystem services, maintain ecosystem resilience to climate change and natural disasters, connectivity | Better healthcare, education and housing, to improve security, human rights and social equity, maintain food security and farming cultural heritage. to increase employment and income, increase smallholders potential and competitiveness, increase municipality income, strengthen institutions and law enforcements, increase local participation and conserve native habitats and connectivity. | No | Approx. 2040 |
Nilsson et al. (2005) [42] | LCA | Energy consumption, global warming potential, ozone layer depletion, photochemical oxidation, acidification, eutrophication, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, marine aquatic ecotoxicity, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and human toxicity | Â | No | 2008 |
Bouvart et al. (2011) [43] | LCA | GHG emissions, energy consumption, NOx, SOx |  | No | 2020–2050 |
Chen et al. (2012) [44] | LCA | Global warming (GWP), abiotic depletion, acidification, eutrophication, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, ozone depletion, photochemical ozone creation or summer smog, terrestrial ecotoxicity. | Â | No | n.s. |
Dandres et al. (2012) [45] | M-LCA | Human health, global warming, natural resources, ecosystems |  | No | 2005–2025 |
Santoyo- Castelazo and Azapagic (2014) [46] | LCA, MCA | Same as in Chen et al. above | Security and diversity of supply; public acceptability, intergenerational issues | No | 2050 |
Gujba et al. (2011) [47] | LCA | GHG emissions | Â | No | 2030 |
Malmodin and Bergmark (2015) [48] | LCA | GHG emissions | Â | Yes | 2030 |
Münster et al. (2013) [49] | LCA | GHG emissions Renewable energy |  | No | Two case studies (2030; and 2050) |
Björklund (2012) [50] | LCA | Climate change Photochemical oxidation Acidification Eutrophication Nox SOx NH3 Particulates |  | No | n.s. |
Singh and Strømman (2013) [51] | LCA | GHG, NOx, SO2, particulate matter |  | No | 2012–2020 |
Berrill et al. (2016) [52] | LCA | GHG emissions, land use and use of non-renewable resources. | Â | No | 2050 |
Foolmaun and Ramjeeawon (2013) [53] | S-LCA, LCA | Carcinogens, res- piratory organics, respiratory inorganics, climate change, radiation, ecotoxicity, ozone layer, acidification/eutrophica- tion, land use, mineral and fossil fuel | Child labour, fair salary, forced labour, health and safety, social benefit/social security, discrimination, contribution to economic development and community engagement | No | n.s. |
Rugani et al. (2015) [54] | S-LCA |  | Child Labour Collective bargaining Corruption Drinking water quality Excessive working time Forced Labour Gender Equity High Conflict Hospital Beds Improved Sanitation Indigenous Rights Injuries and Fatalities Legal System Migrant labour Poverty Wage Toxic and Hazards | No | 2010–2025 |
Stamford and Azapagic (2014) [55] | LCSA | Recyclability of inputs, water toxicity, GWP, ozone layer, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidant, land occupation, terrestrial toxicity, were considered, and on the social side employment, work injuries, human toxicity, health, fatalities, avoiding imports, diversity fuel mix, fuel storage, handling of uranium, resource use, radioactive waste. | Employment, work injuries, human toxicity, health, fatalities, avoiding imports, diversity fuel mix, fuel storage, handling of uranium, resource use, radioactive waste. | No | 2070 |
Wijkman and Skånberg (2015) [56] | I-O analysis | GHG emissions | Employment | No | 2030 |
Anderson et al. (2008) [57] | MCA, value rose chart | Habitat change/conversion Land take/release Atmospheric deposition Resource extraction Waste management Risk to the natural environment Water quantity | Eco-centric culture Resilience Social exclusion & inequality Impacts on poorer countries Cultural diversity Health | No | 2050 |
Onat et al. (2016) [58] | MCA | Carbon, water, energy, hazardous waste, fishery, grazing, forestry, cropland, CO2 uptake land | Taxes and injuries. | No | n.s. |
López et al. (2012) [59] | MCA | CO2 and PM/NOx emissions, noise | Transport safety and equity, accessibility and employment | No | 2030 |
Hickman et al. (2012) [60] | MCA | Noise, Vibration and air quality | Accessibility, safety and access to jobs | No | 2030 |
Streimikiene et al. (2016) [61] | MCA | Contribution of renewable energy, climate change and other emissions, waste treatment and natural local conditions | Social welfare (jobs, economic security), education, energy, culture and public acceptance | No | n.s. |
Karami et al. (2017) [62] | SD | Â | Perceived wellbeing, Quality of life, Social structure development, Rural and agricultural economic conditions, Conservation of community resources. | No | n.s. |
Hilty et al. (2006) [63] | SD | GHG emissions | Â | Yes | 2020 |
Ahmadi Achachlouei and Hilty (2015) [64] | SD | Total energy consumption, share of electricity generation from renewable resources, GHG emissions, municipal solid waste not recycled. | Â | Yes | 2020 |
Ljunggren Söderman et al. (2016) [65] | EMEC, LCA | Climate change, ozone depletion, human toxicity, Photochemical oxidant formation, Particulate matter formation, Ionising radiation, Terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, Marine eutrophication, terrestrial ecotoxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity, agricultural land occupation, urban land occupation, natural land transformation, water depletion, metal depletion, fossil depletion |  | No | 2030 |
IPCC (Riahi et al. (2011) [66] van vuuren et al. (2011) [67], Thomson et al. (2011) [68]) | Integrated models | GHG and short-lived species including CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, VOCs, CO, SO2, carbonaceous aerosols, HFCs, PFCs, NH3, and SF6. |  | No | 2010–2100 |