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Table 1 Timeline of the stories used to explore the scenarios Global Food and Regional Food with the SES

From: Food safety and nutrition – how to prepare for a challenging future? New approaches for using scenarios for policy-making

  Scenario GLOBAL FOOD Scenario REGIONAL FOOD
2020 1. Global population and global trade continue to grow
2. Climate change impacts worsen steadily
3. Increased pressure on natural resources
4. Social protection systems weaken
5. EU citizens become more open towards modern food technologies
6. Concentration of agro-food sector continues
1. Global population and global trade continue to grow
2. Increased pressure on natural resources world-wide
3. No effective progress at international level to stop climate change
4. More environmental awareness and vocal citizen groups
5. Citizens perceive EU as an important actor to defend their interests
6. Selected acceptance of new food technologies, ICTs permeate all sectors
2030 1. EU global economic power weakens, global trade rules simplified
2. International food companies can secure resources at global level
3. Traditional food values weaken, cost-cutting in food production
4. Growing urbanisation and higher demand for processed convenient food
5. More investments in modern food preservation
6. High socio-economic inequalities reflected in public health
1. Frequent trade disruptions raise awareness on food supply security
2. More incidences with quality and safety of imported food
3. Higher food prices increase share in household expenditure considerably
4. More alternative food chains start to develop, including home-grown food
5. Citizens are increasingly critical of business as usual
6. Modern food technology starts being accepted for sustainability of quality food production
2050 1. Fully liberalized global trading system
2. Global food industry concentrated in few multinationals
3. New technologies readily taken up to address climate change and resource scarcity
4. Fully globalised and commoditised food chain
5. Diets mostly market driven
6. Quality, fresh foods only available to those who can afford them
1. The EU, as others, selectively abandoned trade agreements
2. The EU economies are becoming largely circular and self-reliant
3. EU food chains are largely local/regional with urban farming & home-grown food
4. Sustainability is promoted through taxes and regulations
5. citizen initiatives make up for reductions in social services
6. Food is valued, animal protein in diets has been reduced considerably