From: Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security
Black swans | Four transformative scenarios 2050 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Radical Startups 2050 | Value-Driven Techemoths 2050 | Green DIY Engineers 2050 | New Consciousness 2050 | |
Total industrial revolution | QUAN: ↑↑↑ QUAL: Startups 3D print RE solutions. | QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Further polarization. | QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Self-made 3D printers. | QUAN: ↑↑ QUAL: Open source 3D, open ownership |
Collapse of the U.S.A. | QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Radical startups in other countries. | QUAN: ↑↓ QUAL: US techemoths fall, Asian rise. | QUAN: ↑ (US) ↑ (others). QUAL: Re-juvenation of the USA. | QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: World fears other ‘failed states’. |
Mass deaths due to climate change | QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Startups’ innovations help or prevent. | QUAN: ↑↑ QUAL: Techemoths are called to help. | QUAN: ↑↓ QUAL: Survival of the fittest. | QUAN: First ↓↓, then ↑↑ QUAL: First shock, then collective action. |
Revenge of the fossil fuel industry | QUAN: ↓ QUAL: Commercial and cyber warfare against RE startups. | QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: Large oil companies’ warfare against RE techemoths. | QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: DIY Engineers criminalized, sanctioned. | QUAN: First ↓↓↓, later ↑↑↑. QUAL: Missionaries of the old world. Revenge mostly fails. |
Digital Anarchy | QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Hacked robots and Internet of Things used in attacks. | QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: Outside hackers as a counterforce. | QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Back to handmade world. | QUAN: ↓↓, later ↑ QUAL: Diabolization of fossil thinking. |