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Table 3 Post-Futures Clinique cross impact analysis with black swans

From: Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

Black swans

Four transformative scenarios 2050

 

Radical Startups 2050

Value-Driven Techemoths 2050

Green DIY Engineers 2050

New Consciousness 2050

Total industrial revolution

QUAN: ↑↑↑ QUAL: Startups 3D print RE solutions.

QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Further polarization.

QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Self-made 3D printers.

QUAN: ↑↑ QUAL: Open source 3D, open ownership

Collapse of the U.S.A.

QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Radical startups in other countries.

QUAN: ↑↓ QUAL: US techemoths fall, Asian rise.

QUAN: ↑ (US) ↑ (others). QUAL: Re-juvenation of the USA.

QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: World fears other ‘failed states’.

Mass deaths due to climate change

QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Startups’ innovations help or prevent.

QUAN: ↑↑ QUAL: Techemoths are called to help.

QUAN: ↑↓ QUAL: Survival of the fittest.

QUAN: First ↓↓, then ↑↑ QUAL: First shock, then collective action.

Revenge of the fossil fuel industry

QUAN: ↓ QUAL: Commercial and cyber warfare against RE startups.

QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: Large oil companies’ warfare against RE techemoths.

QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: DIY Engineers criminalized, sanctioned.

QUAN: First ↓↓↓, later ↑↑↑. QUAL: Missionaries of the old world. Revenge mostly fails.

Digital Anarchy

QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Hacked robots and Internet of Things used in attacks.

QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: Outside hackers as a counterforce.

QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Back to handmade world.

QUAN: ↓↓, later ↑ QUAL: Diabolization of fossil thinking.