Skip to main content

Table 3 Post-Futures Clinique cross impact analysis with black swans

From: Surprise as the new normal – implications for energy security

Black swans Four transformative scenarios 2050
  Radical Startups 2050 Value-Driven Techemoths 2050 Green DIY Engineers 2050 New Consciousness 2050
Total industrial revolution QUAN: ↑↑↑ QUAL: Startups 3D print RE solutions. QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Further polarization. QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Self-made 3D printers. QUAN: ↑↑ QUAL: Open source 3D, open ownership
Collapse of the U.S.A. QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Radical startups in other countries. QUAN: ↑↓ QUAL: US techemoths fall, Asian rise. QUAN: ↑ (US) ↑ (others). QUAL: Re-juvenation of the USA. QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: World fears other ‘failed states’.
Mass deaths due to climate change QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Startups’ innovations help or prevent. QUAN: ↑↑ QUAL: Techemoths are called to help. QUAN: ↑↓ QUAL: Survival of the fittest. QUAN: First ↓↓, then ↑↑ QUAL: First shock, then collective action.
Revenge of the fossil fuel industry QUAN: ↓ QUAL: Commercial and cyber warfare against RE startups. QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: Large oil companies’ warfare against RE techemoths. QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: DIY Engineers criminalized, sanctioned. QUAN: First ↓↓↓, later ↑↑↑. QUAL: Missionaries of the old world. Revenge mostly fails.
Digital Anarchy QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Hacked robots and Internet of Things used in attacks. QUAN: ↓↓ QUAL: Outside hackers as a counterforce. QUAN: ↑ QUAL: Back to handmade world. QUAN: ↓↓, later ↑ QUAL: Diabolization of fossil thinking.