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Table 1 Direction and importance of key factors within each scenario

From: Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

  Unlimited Passivity and chaotic collapse Cooperation and de-growth Smart & spiritual
Social     
 Demography:     
  Population growth + +   
  Ageing +    +
  Global migrations + +   
  Living place flexibility +    
 Education and social capital:     
  Level of education +   + +
  Equality of cultural capital    + +
 Preferences and awareness:     
  Consumerism (VS spiritual needs) + +  
  Environmental awareness + +
  Propensity to own VS share use   
  Social significance of travel choices (status) +   
  Value of doing tasks while travelling +    +
  Rationality of choices   + +
  Value of safety +    +
  Value of health     +
  Value of free time and leisure     +
  More virtual than physical relations / communication    +  
Technological     
  Ability to address energy, environmental and ageing challenges by technical developments +  
Economical     
 Economic development:     
  Level of economic growth +   
  Economic stability +   
  Volume of international trade +   
  Economic equality + +
 Production and consumption patterns:     
  Share of knowledge based work +   + +
  Purchasing channel paradigms (P2P and e-commerce VS local commerce…) +    +
  Scale of production: mass VS customised   +  
  Paid work time reduction    + +
 Energy:     
  Fossil energy scarcity – prices + +  
 Urban development:     
  Urbanisation +   +
  Urban density   +  
  Congestion +  
Environmental (perceived problem of…)     
  Climate change + + +
  Biodiversity and other environmental issues + +  
  Local pollution (air, noise)    +
Political     
  Global cooperation on global issues + +
  Power of the State +  
  Power of the people and civil organizations     +
  International conflicts +  
  Security concerns + +   
  Market liberalization +   
  Infrastructure development +