Table 1 Direction and importance of key factors within each scenario

Social

 Demography:

  Population growth

+

+

  Ageing

+

+

  Global migrations

+

+

  Living place flexibility

+

 Education and social capital:

  Level of education

+

+

+

  Equality of cultural capital

+

+

 Preferences and awareness:

  Consumerism (VS spiritual needs)

+

+

–

  Environmental awareness

–

–

+

+

  Propensity to own VS share use

–

–

  Social significance of travel choices (status)

+

–

  Value of doing tasks while travelling

+

+

  Rationality of choices

–

+

+

  Value of safety

+

+

  Value of health

+

  Value of free time and leisure

+

  More virtual than physical relations / communication

+

Technological

  Ability to address energy, environmental and ageing challenges by technical developments

+

–

–

Economical

 Economic development:

  Level of economic growth

+

–

  Economic stability

+

–

  Volume of international trade

+

–

  Economic equality

–

–

+

+

 Production and consumption patterns:

  Share of knowledge based work

+

+

+

  Purchasing channel paradigms (P2P and e-commerce VS local commerce…)

+

+

  Scale of production: mass VS customised

–

+

  Paid work time reduction

+

+

 Energy:

  Fossil energy scarcity – prices

–

+

+

 Urban development:

  Urbanisation

+

+

–

  Urban density

–

+

  Congestion

+

–

–

Environmental (perceived problem of…)

  Climate change

–

+

+

+

  Biodiversity and other environmental issues

–

+

+

  Local pollution (air, noise)

–

+

Political

  Global cooperation on global issues

–

–

+

+

  Power of the State

–

–

+

  Power of the people and civil organizations

+

  International conflicts

–

+

–

  Security concerns

+

+

  Market liberalization

+

–

  Infrastructure development

+

–