Impact group | Benefits |
User | Travel time is not driving time, so disutility decreases and comfort increases. |
Travel time may be used for other work/leisure activities. | |
AVs can allow the integration of culturally diverse users in cities globally. | |
AVs can enhance demand for travel allowing passengers of any age to reach their destination safely. | |
Transport related social exclusion may be eliminated. | |
Government | Increased safety due to less accidents (mainly in the era when only AVs will be on the roads). |
More parking space will become available and it may be used for other purposes by city authorities. | |
If AVs are eco-friendly, there could be reduced air pollution and lower energy use from the transport sector. | |
Accessibility can improve for all travellers, including the elderly and disabled. | |
Business | Significant business opportunities will arise for automotive manufacturers, particularly for conventional ones which decide to enter this innovative market. |
Expanding databases and innovative use of Big Data will allow the emergence of business opportunities and new business models, creating value for stakeholders . | |
Logistics and supply chain business will reduce (congestion, time) costs through eco-driving, better route planning, V2x communication and platooning. | |
Impact group | Threats |
User | High cost of ‘smart’ infrastructure (V2I) to accommodate AVs. |
Local congestion may increase if the aggregate number of journeys increases. | |
Cost of emerging mobility patterns can lead to social exclusion of certain groups if high. | |
Identifying and assigning responsibility for car accidents may become more fuzzy. | |
‘Digital divide’ can lead to increased social exclusion. | |
Better use of travel time may increase travel time e.g., daily commute, resulting in higher aggregate energy demand at local and national level. | |
Widespread use of AVs can reduce walking and cycling, increasing obesity and negative health impacts. | |
Unintended consequences will arise such as privacy, surveillance and data management issues linked with ICT for transport or the threat of wireless hacking to gain unauthorised control of AVs. | |
Government | The adjustment period when both conventional human driven and autonomous cars co-exist on roads could impose more car accidents. |
Deciding on the optimal route will be a challenge particularly during extreme events and principles may differ across cities complicating inter-urban journeys. | |
Emergence of diverse technologies by competing actors may lead in lack of coordination and common legislation. | |
Reduced employment demand for drivers and car technicians, increasing government costs for retraining and/or unemployment benefits. | |
Business | Better use of travel time may increase travel time to travel through routes with greater journey comfort leading to increased congestion. |
Development of competing technologies by diverse actors may lead to inefficient use of resources and the evolution of competing standards internationally. | |
Vehicular communication network needs high transmission capacity equipment and proper penetration rate to achieve optimal transport performance. |