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Impact group
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Benefits
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User
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Travel time is not driving time, so disutility decreases and comfort increases.
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Travel time may be used for other work/leisure activities.
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AVs can allow the integration of culturally diverse users in cities globally.
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AVs can enhance demand for travel allowing passengers of any age to reach their destination safely.
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Transport related social exclusion may be eliminated.
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Government
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Increased safety due to less accidents (mainly in the era when only AVs will be on the roads).
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More parking space will become available and it may be used for other purposes by city authorities.
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If AVs are eco-friendly, there could be reduced air pollution and lower energy use from the transport sector.
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Accessibility can improve for all travellers, including the elderly and disabled.
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Business
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Significant business opportunities will arise for automotive manufacturers, particularly for conventional ones which decide to enter this innovative market.
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Expanding databases and innovative use of Big Data will allow the emergence of business opportunities and new business models, creating value for stakeholders .
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Logistics and supply chain business will reduce (congestion, time) costs through eco-driving, better route planning, V2x communication and platooning.
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Impact group
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Threats
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User
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High cost of ‘smart’ infrastructure (V2I) to accommodate AVs.
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Local congestion may increase if the aggregate number of journeys increases.
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Cost of emerging mobility patterns can lead to social exclusion of certain groups if high.
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Identifying and assigning responsibility for car accidents may become more fuzzy.
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‘Digital divide’ can lead to increased social exclusion.
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Better use of travel time may increase travel time e.g., daily commute, resulting in higher aggregate energy demand at local and national level.
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Widespread use of AVs can reduce walking and cycling, increasing obesity and negative health impacts.
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Unintended consequences will arise such as privacy, surveillance and data management issues linked with ICT for transport or the threat of wireless hacking to gain unauthorised control of AVs.
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Government
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The adjustment period when both conventional human driven and autonomous cars co-exist on roads could impose more car accidents.
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Deciding on the optimal route will be a challenge particularly during extreme events and principles may differ across cities complicating inter-urban journeys.
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Emergence of diverse technologies by competing actors may lead in lack of coordination and common legislation.
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Reduced employment demand for drivers and car technicians, increasing government costs for retraining and/or unemployment benefits.
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Business
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Better use of travel time may increase travel time to travel through routes with greater journey comfort leading to increased congestion.
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Development of competing technologies by diverse actors may lead to inefficient use of resources and the evolution of competing standards internationally.
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Vehicular communication network needs high transmission capacity equipment and proper penetration rate to achieve optimal transport performance.
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