Table 2 Wild Card assessment—main (concise) results from the expert survey
From: Wild cards in transport
Wild Card | Impact * = Low ** = Medium *** = High | Breadth of effect | Main Vulnerability | Importance for decision makers | Main weak signals | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aviation | Road | Rail | |||||
1. Drastic decrease in freight transport | Negative ** | Mixed ** | Negative ** | Global | All ** | ** | 3D Printers proliferation Growing variety of materials used Reorientation of shipping to raw materials |
2. Energy abundance | Positive *** | Positive *** | Positive *** | Global | All ** | *** | Low cost nuclear fusion Increased shale gas production Hydrogen production from seawater by solar energy |
3. Cessation of economic relations between the US and the EU | Negative *** | Negative ** | Negative ** | Global | Aviation *** Road, Rail ** | ** | Import restrictions Strong rise of protectionism within the US |
4. Mass migration of people | Negative ** | Negative *** | Negative *** | Regional | Road *** Rail ** | ** | Growing economic inequality Significant economic turmoil in China, India, Russia Failure to mitigate severe climate change |
5. Emergence of drones | Mixed * | Positive** | Mixed * | Global | Road ** | ** | Ability to operate in normal airspace Solution/regulation of security/safety issues |
6. Europe-wide traffic control system | Positive * | Positive *** | Positive ** | Regional | Road ** Rail ** | *** | Successful demonstration projects Installation of traffic monitoring devices on all roads Penetration of V2X capability |
7. Flying cars, at last! | Negative *** | Positive *** | Negative ** | Global | Aviation *** Road*** Rail ** | * | Breakthrough in control systems technology Wide use of driverless vehicles Penetration of connected vehicle technologies |
8. Autonomous ground vehicles widely used | Mixed * | Positive *** | Mixed ** | National Regional Global | Road *** | *** | First “automated driving area” declared operational Statistic indications that human drivers are causing significantly more accidents than driverless cars Incremental improvements in autonomous capabilities in mass-produced cars |
9. Lightweight self-healing materials revolutionize vehicles | Positive *** | Positive *** | Positive *** | Global | All ** | * | Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) buy-in Military deployment of such materials |
10. All-electric road transport based on renewable energy | Positive * | Positive *** | Positive ** | Global | Road ** | *** | OLEV buses More than 50 % of road vehicles are battery powered Massive and lasting rise of oil price |
11. Superfast ground transport | Negative *** | Mixed *** | Positive *** | Regional | Aviation*** Road, Rail ** | ** | Breakthroughs in superconducting materials MAGLEV and other non-contact technologies widely accepted and cost-effective |
12. Slow travel / Slow logistics | Negative ** | Positive *** | Positive ** | Local/ Regional/Global | All ** | ** | Adoption by opinion leaders % of commuters that use bicycles instead of private cars doubles |
13. Massive abandonment of ICT-based systems | Negative *** | Negative *** | Negative ** | Global | Aviation *** Road*** Rail** | *** | Failure to address cyber-security threats. Demonstrated vulnerability of vehicles to cyber-attacks. Hackers being able to penetrate NSA in the US. |
14. Drastic decrease in passenger transport | Negative ** | Mixed ** | Negative ** | Global | All ** | ** | “Peak car” evident in certain EU countries Decrease in vehicle sales Ubiquitous high-speed low cost Internet connection |