Table 1 A summary of the scenarios

Users, values and regulation

Community-based thinking is strong.

Tight local/regional regulations for vehicle and fuel production, distribution and use.

Educated, green users.

Tight global and national regulations for vehicle and fuel production, distribution and use.

End-user views and needs are dispersed.

Various (even conflicting) regulations.

Economic aspects dominate due to crisis.

Only few poorly supervised regulations.

Transport system

Road transport dominates.

Smart passenger and goods transport solutions for small communities.

Rail transport and Non-Motorised Transport (NMT) dominate in cities and intercity connections.

Road, rail and NMT in cities, no priorities.

Road transport for long distance travel and goods transportation.

Road transport dominates.

Poor maintenance of infrastructure.

Transport demand

Passenger: Slight increase.

Goods: decrease.

Decrease.

Passenger: slight decrease.

Goods: no change.

Decreases due to poor economy.

Industry characteristics and structure

Local distributed industries and services.

Industrial renewal, large service sector companies.

Centralised energy intensive industries.

Stagnation, economic problems, no renewal.

Technology development

Moderate.

Rapid, advanced and innovative.

Moderate.

Slow.