Table 7 Terrorism in Europe 2030 (Cohen and Blanco 2014)

Low intensity conflicts, or small wars. Irregular warfare

The absence of a clear international leadership, the multi-polar distribution of power, the weak and late response of the US or the EU to emerging conflicts, the existence of radical religious ideologies, and the fragility of several states could provide the terrorist organizations the opportunity to have safe havens to recruit, train, and control partially some states. The proximity to the EU or the action of the states of the EU could be factors affecting the risk

H

H

New terrorist safe havens

Conflicts, weak states, terrorist mobility, foreign fighters

M

M

The merge between terrorism and transnational organized crime (TOC)

Urbanization, fragile and collapsed states, corruption, financing needs, weapons trafficking, false documents trafficking, drug trafficking, human beings trafficking, natural resources trafficking

H

M

Terrorist use of the internet

The cyberspace will be another battleground of terrorism, a marketplace of ideas, a way of communication, recruitment, financing, buying resources, terrorising

H

M

Cyberterrorism

Technological development, smart cities, interconnected critical infrastructures

M

H

Terrorist use of new technologies

Technological development, individual empowerment, internet, social media,

M

H

Armies of terror

Foreign fighters, big armies associated to Shia and to Sunni worlds, internet and social media, fragile states as objective

H

M

Individual terrorism

The process of individual empowerment, internet and social media, the knowledge society, “leaderless resistance” principles.

M

M

Homegrown terrorism

Migration to the EU, lack of opportunities, grievances (political, social, ideological, cultural, or economic), and the integration of second and third generations

M

M

Rise of extremism: religious, right-wing, left-wing. Radicalization

Globalization, urbanization process, corruption, international conflicts, the existence of “ghettos”, migration to the EU, the acceptance of migrants, the integration of second and third generations of immigrants, the cultural polarization, economic and social inequalities

H

M

Rise of trans-terrorism networks. Transversal bridges between groups

Globalization, transports, internet, social media, foreign fighters networks, multiactivism, diffuse ideologies, relationships between different international groups, unexpected “marriages of ideologies”, organized crime

H

H

New ways of action

Globalisation of terror. Kidnappings, small arms, soft targets, urban jihad, or dramatic actions used in Syria or Iraq

M

H

Access to weapons of mass destruction

Growing proliferation, fragile states, conflicts

L

H

Anarchism

Diffuse leadership, inequality, anti-capitalism values, proliferation of social unrest, surveillance battle between states and citizens, corruption; lack of confidence in institutions

M

M

International interventions against terrorism

War on Terrorism. International and regional alliances. Conflicts. Humanitarian crisis and human rights violations. Peacekeeping operations

H

M

Soft targets

Cultural gaps, narratives anti-western way of life, market orientation and privatisation of the power, business targets of anti-globalisation, anarchist or jihad groups

M

H