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Table 7 Terrorism in Europe 2030 (Cohen and Blanco 2014)

From: The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

FUTURE TERRORISM DRIVERS Probability Impact
Low intensity conflicts, or small wars. Irregular warfare The absence of a clear international leadership, the multi-polar distribution of power, the weak and late response of the US or the EU to emerging conflicts, the existence of radical religious ideologies, and the fragility of several states could provide the terrorist organizations the opportunity to have safe havens to recruit, train, and control partially some states. The proximity to the EU or the action of the states of the EU could be factors affecting the risk H H
New terrorist safe havens Conflicts, weak states, terrorist mobility, foreign fighters M M
The merge between terrorism and transnational organized crime (TOC) Urbanization, fragile and collapsed states, corruption, financing needs, weapons trafficking, false documents trafficking, drug trafficking, human beings trafficking, natural resources trafficking H M
Terrorist use of the internet The cyberspace will be another battleground of terrorism, a marketplace of ideas, a way of communication, recruitment, financing, buying resources, terrorising H M
Cyberterrorism Technological development, smart cities, interconnected critical infrastructures M H
Terrorist use of new technologies Technological development, individual empowerment, internet, social media, M H
Armies of terror Foreign fighters, big armies associated to Shia and to Sunni worlds, internet and social media, fragile states as objective H M
Individual terrorism The process of individual empowerment, internet and social media, the knowledge society, “leaderless resistance” principles. M M
Homegrown terrorism Migration to the EU, lack of opportunities, grievances (political, social, ideological, cultural, or economic), and the integration of second and third generations M M
Rise of extremism: religious, right-wing, left-wing. Radicalization Globalization, urbanization process, corruption, international conflicts, the existence of “ghettos”, migration to the EU, the acceptance of migrants, the integration of second and third generations of immigrants, the cultural polarization, economic and social inequalities H M
Rise of trans-terrorism networks. Transversal bridges between groups Globalization, transports, internet, social media, foreign fighters networks, multiactivism, diffuse ideologies, relationships between different international groups, unexpected “marriages of ideologies”, organized crime H H
New ways of action Globalisation of terror. Kidnappings, small arms, soft targets, urban jihad, or dramatic actions used in Syria or Iraq M H
Access to weapons of mass destruction Growing proliferation, fragile states, conflicts L H
Anarchism Diffuse leadership, inequality, anti-capitalism values, proliferation of social unrest, surveillance battle between states and citizens, corruption; lack of confidence in institutions M M
International interventions against terrorism War on Terrorism. International and regional alliances. Conflicts. Humanitarian crisis and human rights violations. Peacekeeping operations H M
Soft targets Cultural gaps, narratives anti-western way of life, market orientation and privatisation of the power, business targets of anti-globalisation, anarchist or jihad groups M H