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Table 6 Environmental trends and security outcomes (Cohen and Blanco 2014)

From: The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

TRENDS

DRIVERS

INDICATORS

E

TIME

OUTCOMES

U

Growing resources demand

Cultivation; new technologies; economic and population growth; urbanization degree; food, water and energy scarcity

Prices of resources (oil, minerals, food); international conflicts

**

M/L

Conflicts; resources scarcity; food crisis; humanitarian crisis; migrations

H

Climate change

Determining the direct effect of climate change in natural disasters and other effects

Climate effects: droughts, floods, tsunamis…

**

S/M/L

H

Pandemics

Urbanisation; globalisation; travels

Evolution of incidents

*

S/M/L

H

Natural catastrophes

Floods, volcanos, earthquakes, tsunamis

Evolution of incidents

*

S/M/L

H