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Table 4 Social trends and security outcomes (Cohen and Blanco 2014)

From: The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

TRENDS DRIVERS INDICATORS E TIME OUTCOMES U
Global population growth Growing life expectancy; growing fertility in developing countries Fertility rates; life expectancy *** M/L Strain on natural resources and food; migration floods L
Population ageing in high and middle income countries and family changes Growing life expectancy; high fertility rates; less infectious diseases; elderly citizens; increasing in one single person ways of life; new forms of cohabitation; youth bulges on parts of the world Fertility rates; life expectancy; % of single parent households; divorce rates; average households size; poverty by household; old age dependency ratio, health care costs; proportion of young population *** S/M/L Risks of poverty and social exclusion; migration to the EU; social unrest; pressure for democratic reforms; lack of opportunities; radicalization. M
Decline working population in EU Fertility decreases; longevity increases Fertility rates; population growth; dependency ratios; % older people *** S/M/L Migration to the EU; pressure for democratic reforms; decreasing political EU influence; social unrest L
Migrations Diversity in migration flows; attractiveness for migrants: economic and employment opportunities; social and family networks; rights and liberties; attitudes to migrants; residential distribution of migrants; conflicts; second and third generations integration; “diaspora” communities Global Peace Index; Human Development Index; Racism surveys; migration rates; integration indicators; education level and success rate; migrant unemployment rates; diasporas communities evolution *** S/M/L Cultural polarization; problems of integrations; ethnic and religious conflicts; stress to social welfare; racism; skill gaps for job access; ghettos; lack of opportunities; extremisms and radicalization; hate crimes; inter-communal violence; home-grown terrorism H
Growing western values Consumerism; globalization of values and ways of life; internet and social media; growing middle class Gross domestic consumption; luxury industry trends; Democracy index; Civil rights index ** S/M Inequality; grievances; terrorist narratives based on western way of life; democratic reforms; anti-globalisation movements M
Global urbanization Economic opportunities; globalization of travel and transports and mobility Urban population rate *** S/M/L Social exclusion; ghettos; radicalization; resource scarcity; urban warfare M
Human development Better education, health and wealth Human Development Index *** M/L High variations in the EU; opportunities that can be applied or failed L
Individual empowerment Internet; social media, networks; education online; information and knowledge society Internet and social media use *** S/M New opportunities, but terrorist opportunities too in communication and recruitment: loner terrorism, foreign fighters H