Table 4 Social trends and security outcomes (Cohen and Blanco 2014)
From: The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction
TRENDS | DRIVERS | INDICATORS | E | TIME | OUTCOMES | U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Global population growth | Growing life expectancy; growing fertility in developing countries | Fertility rates; life expectancy | *** | M/L | Strain on natural resources and food; migration floods | L |
Population ageing in high and middle income countries and family changes | Growing life expectancy; high fertility rates; less infectious diseases; elderly citizens; increasing in one single person ways of life; new forms of cohabitation; youth bulges on parts of the world | Fertility rates; life expectancy; % of single parent households; divorce rates; average households size; poverty by household; old age dependency ratio, health care costs; proportion of young population | *** | S/M/L | Risks of poverty and social exclusion; migration to the EU; social unrest; pressure for democratic reforms; lack of opportunities; radicalization. | M |
Decline working population in EU | Fertility decreases; longevity increases | Fertility rates; population growth; dependency ratios; % older people | *** | S/M/L | Migration to the EU; pressure for democratic reforms; decreasing political EU influence; social unrest | L |
Migrations | Diversity in migration flows; attractiveness for migrants: economic and employment opportunities; social and family networks; rights and liberties; attitudes to migrants; residential distribution of migrants; conflicts; second and third generations integration; “diaspora” communities | Global Peace Index; Human Development Index; Racism surveys; migration rates; integration indicators; education level and success rate; migrant unemployment rates; diasporas communities evolution | *** | S/M/L | Cultural polarization; problems of integrations; ethnic and religious conflicts; stress to social welfare; racism; skill gaps for job access; ghettos; lack of opportunities; extremisms and radicalization; hate crimes; inter-communal violence; home-grown terrorism | H |
Growing western values | Consumerism; globalization of values and ways of life; internet and social media; growing middle class | Gross domestic consumption; luxury industry trends; Democracy index; Civil rights index | ** | S/M | Inequality; grievances; terrorist narratives based on western way of life; democratic reforms; anti-globalisation movements | M |
Global urbanization | Economic opportunities; globalization of travel and transports and mobility | Urban population rate | *** | S/M/L | Social exclusion; ghettos; radicalization; resource scarcity; urban warfare | M |
Human development | Better education, health and wealth | Human Development Index | *** | M/L | High variations in the EU; opportunities that can be applied or failed | L |
Individual empowerment | Internet; social media, networks; education online; information and knowledge society | Internet and social media use | *** | S/M | New opportunities, but terrorist opportunities too in communication and recruitment: loner terrorism, foreign fighters | H |