Table 2 Political trends and security outcomes (Cohen and Blanco 2014)

Crisis of power

Obama doctrine: “Leading from behind”; growing impact of nonstate actors; crisis of the power of nations; new international balance of power; multi-polar world and diffused power; post western period; lack of EU international leadership; WMD proliferation; world processes of democratisation.

Global Peace Index (GPI); Fragile States Index (FSI); inequality gaps between countries; power indicators (GDP, military power, etc.)

**

S/M/L

Global governance failure; anarchy; failed and weak states; corruption; organized crime; terrorism; long and permanent low level conflicts out of control

H

Growing local and regional conflicts

EU surrounded by unstable regions (Middle East, North of Africa); military participation of EU countries; peacekeeping operations; War on Terrorism.

GPI; FSI; presence of European countries troops in conflicts

**

S/M/L

Fragile states; corruption; organized crime; terrorism; intrastate conflicts; insurgencies.

H

Improvement in human rights

Democratisation process; transparency

Press Freedom Index, Civil Rights Index, Democracy Index

**

S/M

Disparities inside the EU

M

Changes in traditional political participation to issue based participation

Technological progress; connected devices; internet; social media; activism and cyber activism; new ways of participation; pressure for democratic reforms; transnational mobilizations; voters rejecting established political parties; low trust in politics

Number of political platforms online; new social movements; e-government index; transparency index; open data index; Democracy index; Civil rights index

***

S/M

Social conflicts; leaks; changing political engagement; demands of interaction; decrease engagement with traditional parties

H

Growing surveillance

Security concerns about privacy and cyberspace; legal systems of control

E-government and open data indexes; sentiment analysis output; proliferation of leaks

**

S/M

Multi surveillance from the states and from citizens; leaks; social conflict

M

Growing popularity of grassroots and populist movements, extremism

Declining trust in institutions; Diverging global attitudes; anti-globalization movements; nationalisms; Euro-scepticism ascendant; historical factors

EU elections results; national election results; number of terrorist attacks or incidents; confidence in institutions surveys.

***

S/M

Social unrest; political violence; terrorism; narratives that aim to conquest Al Andalus

H