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Table 2 Political trends and security outcomes (Cohen and Blanco 2014)

From: The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

TRENDS DRIVERS INDICATORS E TIME OUTCOMES U
Crisis of power Obama doctrine: “Leading from behind”; growing impact of nonstate actors; crisis of the power of nations; new international balance of power; multi-polar world and diffused power; post western period; lack of EU international leadership; WMD proliferation; world processes of democratisation. Global Peace Index (GPI); Fragile States Index (FSI); inequality gaps between countries; power indicators (GDP, military power, etc.) ** S/M/L Global governance failure; anarchy; failed and weak states; corruption; organized crime; terrorism; long and permanent low level conflicts out of control H
Growing local and regional conflicts EU surrounded by unstable regions (Middle East, North of Africa); military participation of EU countries; peacekeeping operations; War on Terrorism. GPI; FSI; presence of European countries troops in conflicts ** S/M/L Fragile states; corruption; organized crime; terrorism; intrastate conflicts; insurgencies. H
Improvement in human rights Democratisation process; transparency Press Freedom Index, Civil Rights Index, Democracy Index ** S/M Disparities inside the EU M
Changes in traditional political participation to issue based participation Technological progress; connected devices; internet; social media; activism and cyber activism; new ways of participation; pressure for democratic reforms; transnational mobilizations; voters rejecting established political parties; low trust in politics Number of political platforms online; new social movements; e-government index; transparency index; open data index; Democracy index; Civil rights index *** S/M Social conflicts; leaks; changing political engagement; demands of interaction; decrease engagement with traditional parties H
Growing surveillance Security concerns about privacy and cyberspace; legal systems of control E-government and open data indexes; sentiment analysis output; proliferation of leaks ** S/M Multi surveillance from the states and from citizens; leaks; social conflict M
Growing popularity of grassroots and populist movements, extremism Declining trust in institutions; Diverging global attitudes; anti-globalization movements; nationalisms; Euro-scepticism ascendant; historical factors EU elections results; national election results; number of terrorist attacks or incidents; confidence in institutions surveys. *** S/M Social unrest; political violence; terrorism; narratives that aim to conquest Al Andalus H