Foresight framework theories | Practitioners’ comments |
---|---|
Sense-making | |
Sense-making involves understanding how unique meanings are assigned by different people to the same phenomenon [27], this reduces ambiguity and uncertainty enabling the individual or organizational leader to take action. | Firm had “hit the wall” with severe financial and operational stress … FS helped firm understand what might change the future of their industry’s communications even before contemporary technology was available. (I05) |
The limits of knowledge | |
Bounded rationality implies that humans can absorb a finite amount of information before reaching saturation and becoming overwhelmed [2]. | “No such thing as a technology disruption. Rarely does it happen where a new technology comes out of nowhere and just shocks a company unless they’re not doing their foresighting homework at all. It just doesn’t happen that a technology comes along overnight.” (I02) |
Temporal myopia | |
Temporal myopia exists when the pressures of complex decisions lead managers to make decisions, neglecting the future or demonstrating limited understanding of the impact of present decisions on future events [26]. | “The fundamental issue is, that the time required to solve a break-through technical problem exceeds the time horizon of our view of what our consumers want.” (I06) |
Epistemic blind spots | |
A stream of warning signals are not heeded because the information does not align with existing beliefs [6]. | If a business unit is in bad shape and under pressure, the people in that unit do not care about the long-term; there is too much short-term pressure to think about the future (I07). |
Risk denial | |
Warning signals are discounted or minimized, and corrective action is not taken [6]. | Senior management is in denial, which makes the firm too slow to address product line decline… (I01); in early 2000’s, one firm’s response to new communications technology was ‘if it takes hold, we will buy them’ …acquisition did not happen and devastated telecom part of company. (I07) |