Re-Assessing resource dependency and criticality. Linking future food and water stress with global resource supply vulnerabilities for foresight analysis

Bleischwitz, Raimund; Johnson, Corey M.; Dozler, Michael G.

doi:10.1007/s40309-013-0034-1

European Journal of Futures Research

Table 1 Countries at high risk and their relevance

From: Re-Assessing resource dependency and criticality. Linking future food and water stress with global resource supply vulnerabilities for foresight analysis

Country	Relevance
Afghanistan	Major resource endowments (e.g. lithium) estimated to be near US $1 trillion; long-lasting war and civil war; large drug producer
Algeria	Major producer of natural gas
Democratic Republic of the Congo	Major endowments of copper, diamonds, and critical minerals; long-lasting civil war in eastern portions of the state
Guinea	Major endowments in bauxite (aluminium) and iron ore
Indonesia	Major producer of forest products and agricultural goods (e.g. bio-fuels) as well as fuels (natural gas), nickel, copper and aluminium ores; vulnerable to sea level rise and climate change; secessionist conflicts; strategic position at the Strait of Malacca
Iran	Major producer of natural gas and oil; regional de-stabilizer
Iraq	Major producer of natural gas and oil; long-lasting war and civil war
Libya	Major producer of gas and oil; recent civil war
Nigeria	Major producer of oil, including major off-shore oil reserves; recent political changes towards democracy
Sierra Leone	Major reserves of bauxite (aluminium)
Somalia^a	Holds strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz
Sudan, South Sudan^b	Major producer of oil; currently in armed conflict about disputed areas, including oil fields; plans to erect dams for agricultural use along parts of the Nile River that may put downstream countries at risk of water shortages
Yemen	Severe water shortages; home of terrorists; strategic position at the Strait of Hormuz
Zambia	Major producer of copper, major endowments in coal and cobalt
Zimbabwe	Major reserves in coal and lithium; relevant producer of platinum

Source: authors’ compilation
^aNote on Somalia and Somaliland: In this paper Somaliland is considered to be a legal part of Somalia, since Somaliland does not have internationally recognized independence. Furthermore, the data for political stability, agricultural stressors, and resource reserves does not consider the two entities separately. Therefore, on the map, the designation between Somalia and Somaliland is shown with a dotted line, but the data and evaluation does not distinguish between the two.
^bNote on Sudan and South Sudan: The data for this paper comes from before South Sudan’s separation from Sudan proper in July 2011. Therefore, for the purposes of this paper, assessments of Sudan and South Sudan’s political stability, agricultural stressors, and resource reserves were considered as a unified Sudan. When new data for the two separate countries becomes available, new risk assessments should be made in which case both countries may not necessarily be at high risk.

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