Table 1 Illustration of major properties of the three modes of orientation
From: Modes of orientation provided by futures studies: making sense of diversity and divergence
Mode 1 | Mode 2 | Mode 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
Approach to the future | Predictive: one future | Look for a corridor of sensible futures | Open space of futures |
spectrum of futures | Convergence as ideal | Bounded diversity | Unbounded divergence |
Preferred methodology | Quantitative, model-based | Quantitative or qualitative; participatory | Narrative |
Knowledge used | Causal and statistical knowledge, laws | Models, knowledge of stakeholders | Associative knowledge, arguments |
Role of normative issues | Low | Depends on case | High |
Orientation provided | Decision-support, optimisation | Robust action strategies | Self-reflection and contemporary diagnostics |