Table 1 Overview of the Siegener approach, in comparison to the Intuitive-Logics Models and Scenario Management following Bradfield et al. [2]

Purpose of the scenario work

Multiple, from a one-off activity making sense of situations and developing strategy, to an ongoing activity associated with anticipation and adaptive organizational learning [2].

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models. Additionally, we explicitly see scenario technique not only for future issues. In fact, we regard all problems that have a “native” morphological structure [44] and also consider systemic thinking.

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models – but mainly used in strategic management and restricted to future scenarios.

Scenario perspective

Descriptive or normative [2].

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

Comprehensive description of complex contexts, thus following the Intuitive-Logics Model

Scope of the scenario exercise

Can be either broad or narrow scope ranging from global, regional, country industry to an issue-specific focus [2].

All problems that can be derived by a morphological structure (future, product [45], strategy [46], risk [47], production systems [48], etc.)

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

Additionally, we also use sets of scenarios, i.e. combining different types of scenarios (e.g. future scenarios with product scenarios). See also 4.2.

Tools commonly used

Generic – brainstorming, STEEP analysis, clustering, matrices, system dynamics, and stakeholder analysis [2].

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models, but also intelligent morphological analysis using evolutionary strategies. Additionally, we integrated some other concepts, such as Social Network Analysis [49], LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® [50], Attributes [48], “Blue ocean, Red Ocean” [46], and Delphi surveys.

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models, but also morphological analysis.

Scenario starting point

A particular management decision, issue or area of global concern [2].

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

Scenario exercise output

Qualitative – a set of equally plausible scenarios in discursive narrative form supported by graphics; some limited quantification. Implications, strategic options and early warning signals are increasingly a part of scenario output [2].

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models. However, not limited to future scenarios. We also use so-called “Landscapes of scenarios” (multidimensional scaling).

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

Also: “Landscape of scenarios” (with multidimensional scaling).

Probabilities attached to scenarios

No; all scenarios must be equally probable [2].

No; the same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

No; the same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

Scenario evaluation criteria

Coherence, comprehensiveness, internal consistency, novelty – underpinned by rigorous structural analysis and logics. All scenarios equally plausible [41].

Basically the same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.

Additionally, we use Attributes to evaluate the characteristics, and hence, can add virtually any evaluation criteria; for example, for performing sensitivity analysis (closeness to today: close to today, trend, close to science fiction, etc.).