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Table 1 Overview of the Siegener approach, in comparison to the Intuitive-Logics Models and Scenario Management following Bradfield et al. [2]

From: Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

  Intuitive-Logics Models Siegener Approach Grienitz Scenario Management Gausemeier
Purpose of the scenario work Multiple, from a one-off activity making sense of situations and developing strategy, to an ongoing activity associated with anticipation and adaptive organizational learning [2]. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models. Additionally, we explicitly see scenario technique not only for future issues. In fact, we regard all problems that have a “native” morphological structure [44] and also consider systemic thinking. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models – but mainly used in strategic management and restricted to future scenarios.
Scenario perspective Descriptive or normative [2]. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.
Comprehensive description of complex contexts, thus following the Intuitive-Logics Model
Scope of the scenario exercise Can be either broad or narrow scope ranging from global, regional, country industry to an issue-specific focus [2]. All problems that can be derived by a morphological structure (future, product [45], strategy [46], risk [47], production systems [48], etc.) The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.
Additionally, we also use sets of scenarios, i.e. combining different types of scenarios (e.g. future scenarios with product scenarios). See also 4.2.
Tools commonly used Generic – brainstorming, STEEP analysis, clustering, matrices, system dynamics, and stakeholder analysis [2]. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models, but also intelligent morphological analysis using evolutionary strategies. Additionally, we integrated some other concepts, such as Social Network Analysis [49], LEGO® SERIOUS PLAY® [50], Attributes [48], “Blue ocean, Red Ocean” [46], and Delphi surveys. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models, but also morphological analysis.
Scenario starting point A particular management decision, issue or area of global concern [2]. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.
Scenario exercise output Qualitative – a set of equally plausible scenarios in discursive narrative form supported by graphics; some limited quantification. Implications, strategic options and early warning signals are increasingly a part of scenario output [2]. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models. However, not limited to future scenarios. We also use so-called “Landscapes of scenarios” (multidimensional scaling). The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.
Also: “Landscape of scenarios” (with multidimensional scaling).
Probabilities attached to scenarios No; all scenarios must be equally probable [2]. No; the same as Intuitive-Logics Models. No; the same as Intuitive-Logics Models.
Scenario evaluation criteria Coherence, comprehensiveness, internal consistency, novelty – underpinned by rigorous structural analysis and logics. All scenarios equally plausible [41]. Basically the same as Intuitive-Logics Models. The same as Intuitive-Logics Models.
Additionally, we use Attributes to evaluate the characteristics, and hence, can add virtually any evaluation criteria; for example, for performing sensitivity analysis (closeness to today: close to today, trend, close to science fiction, etc.).
  1. The course of action within the Siegener approach of scenario technique can be described by a phase-model, as shown in Fig. 2. The following paragraphs will briefly explain the essence of each phase