Skip to main content

Table 2 Developments of some determining variables in the four scenarios

From: Scenarios for selected maritime economic functions

Four futures in 2025
  A. Sustainable growth B. Pursued growth C. Boom and bust D. Fragile recovery
Economy Stable growth, increasing but predictable price levels, confidence in the future, long-term planning and investments, increasing globalisation, increasing global competition, relatively weakening position ‘overall’ of EU due to faster growing BRIC. Stable growth is pursued, even if it is at the cost of the environment—‘nature will take care of itself’. The rate of depletion of natural resources is highest here, which is bound to cause setbacks, but not yet in 2025, and believed to be solved by technology. Increasing but predictable price levels, confidence in the future, long-term planning and investments, increasing globalisation, increasing global competition, relatively weakening position overall of EU due to faster growing BRIC Slow recovery from the economic crisis, while the recovery is hampered even more by strong fluctuations in growth and in price levels. Planning aims at the short-term and long-term investments show a sharp decline. During ‘boom’ phases, much is possible, while ‘bust’ phases result in mass unemployment and social unrest Slow recovery from the economic crisis, while the recovery is hampered even more by strong fluctuations in growth and in price levels. Rooted in public opinion, economic recovery is not allowed to harm the environment. This slows down the short-term economic recovery, but in the longer term offers new opportunities, while somewhat levelling the peaks and valleys of the boom and bust cycles
Science and technology Are considered important drivers, receive sufficient resources, support a.o. the development of sustainable production methods Are considered important drivers, receive sufficient resources. Technology is trusted upon as the solution to future problems, to be developed when the need arises Science and technology aim at the short term, at readily implementable research and innovations. Limited funding. Fundamental research is cut down to almost zero, causing a brain drain to Asia. Capitalising on boom phases is key here Science and technology aim at the short to mid term, trying to establish a learning curve from boom phase to boom phase, preserving knowledge gained. Funding is limited. Fundamental research is cut down and shifts internationally, resulting in a ‘vagrant’ research community
Environment and climate Strong commitments to environment, rooted in public conviction of its importance; gradual shift towards sustainable production processes and renewable energies will prevent acute shortages of energy, raw materials and food Limited commitments to environment, which only becomes urgent when it causes economic losses. Climate change is primarily seen as an opportunity for private enterprise. Strong belief in resilience of natural systems Environment and climate change are of secondary importance, receiving attention only for the most acute problems during boom phases Environment and climate receive much attention, though not as much as desired because of limited resources. Policy aims at guaranteeing a learning curve from boom to boom phase, thereby applying a longer time horizon than in C
International relations Strongly developed and aimed at long-term coordination and cooperation. World governance is the lubricant of development Strongly developed and aimed at long-term coordination and cooperation, but only if related to direct national interests. More bilateral agreements than in A Of opportunistic nature, aimed at serving short-term national interests, thereby adding to the overall volatile character of the economy Opportunistic and guided by available funding, but rooted in a shared vision on future desired state
Role of public authorities Play a strong role in the fields of planning, national and international coordination and in presiding over conflicts. Strong position of global organisations Play a strong role in the fields of planning, national and international coordination and in presiding over conflicts. Strong position of national authorities Weak and unreliable, due to limited resources and capacity to anticipate. Unrest during bust phases causes frequent government changes Considered instrumental in preventing the worst excesses of boom and bust, trying to keep course in difficult circumstances. Hampered by limited resources