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Table 3 Delphi survey results for the chemical industry panel

From: Scenarios for the future of the European process industry - the case of the chemical industry

No. Projections for 2030 EP final SD change IQR I D
1 The uncertainty (i.e. the degree of complexity and dynamics) in the industry environment has increased. 72.5 % −20.0 10 3.8 2.6
2 Rules and regulations within the industry have been tightened. 84.2 % −8.0 22 4.1 3.0
3 The value chain of the industry has fundamentally changed. 58.0 % −8.4 20 3.7 3.1
4 The overall industry attractiveness has increased. 52.5 % −5.2 30 3.8 4.1
5 Radical innovations have led to fundamental changes within the industry. 56.7 % −9.0 22.5 3.8 4.0
6 The oil dependency of the European chemical industry has decreased significantly. 59.1 % +0.6 40 3.9 3.7
7 All European production activities have been relocated to outside of the EU. 26.7 % −7.1 30 4.0 1.9
8 Public pressure has made image a key value driver for chemical companies in the EU. 66.1 % −9.2 30 3.6 3.2
9 Synthetic materials have drastically reduced the global need for the mining of metals 41.8 % −14.6 17.5 3.6 3.6
10 High performance materials are made completely out of recycled substances. 49.9 % −3.1 40 3.6 3.9
11 The European chemical industry suffers from a dramatic shortage of qualified personnel. 61.1 % −11.1 35 4.2 1.7
12 Scientific breakthroughs in the chemical industry have eradicated world hunger. 38.6 % −7.3 35 3.4 4.4
13 Resource scarcity has led to a shift in the raw material mix used in the chemical industry. 69.0 % −3.7 30 4.0 3.0
14 Bio-based products have created a paradigm shift in chemical production. 58.6 % −5.3 30 3.8 3.6
15 Sustainability has become a key corporate value of EU chemical companies. 82.6 % −8.1 17.5 3.9 4.3
  1. Projections in italics: consensus achieved: IQR ≤ 20
  2. EP estimated probability of occurrence (0–100 %), I impact (five-point Likert scale), D desirability (five-point Likert scale), IQR interquartile range for EP ratings, SD standard deviation for EP ratings