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Table 3 Delphi survey results for the chemical industry panel

From: Scenarios for the future of the European process industry - the case of the chemical industry

No.

Projections for 2030

EP final

SD change

IQR

I

D

1

The uncertainty (i.e. the degree of complexity and dynamics) in the industry environment has increased.

72.5 %

−20.0

10

3.8

2.6

2

Rules and regulations within the industry have been tightened.

84.2 %

−8.0

22

4.1

3.0

3

The value chain of the industry has fundamentally changed.

58.0 %

−8.4

20

3.7

3.1

4

The overall industry attractiveness has increased.

52.5 %

−5.2

30

3.8

4.1

5

Radical innovations have led to fundamental changes within the industry.

56.7 %

−9.0

22.5

3.8

4.0

6

The oil dependency of the European chemical industry has decreased significantly.

59.1 %

+0.6

40

3.9

3.7

7

All European production activities have been relocated to outside of the EU.

26.7 %

−7.1

30

4.0

1.9

8

Public pressure has made image a key value driver for chemical companies in the EU.

66.1 %

−9.2

30

3.6

3.2

9

Synthetic materials have drastically reduced the global need for the mining of metals

41.8 %

−14.6

17.5

3.6

3.6

10

High performance materials are made completely out of recycled substances.

49.9 %

−3.1

40

3.6

3.9

11

The European chemical industry suffers from a dramatic shortage of qualified personnel.

61.1 %

−11.1

35

4.2

1.7

12

Scientific breakthroughs in the chemical industry have eradicated world hunger.

38.6 %

−7.3

35

3.4

4.4

13

Resource scarcity has led to a shift in the raw material mix used in the chemical industry.

69.0 %

−3.7

30

4.0

3.0

14

Bio-based products have created a paradigm shift in chemical production.

58.6 %

−5.3

30

3.8

3.6

15

Sustainability has become a key corporate value of EU chemical companies.

82.6 %

−8.1

17.5

3.9

4.3

  1. Projections in italics: consensus achieved: IQR ≤ 20
  2. EP estimated probability of occurrence (0–100 %), I impact (five-point Likert scale), D desirability (five-point Likert scale), IQR interquartile range for EP ratings, SD standard deviation for EP ratings